Silvaire wrote:
The best thing in the world is to buy and own a plane that is worth more to you than it is to the open market.
Sounds like a recipe for owning too much junk 
It’s also what happens with every Citroen car after owning it for a year 
One man’s junk is another man’s treasure, and having good judgment in that regard is IME best way to use and make money.
My plane is worth about double what I paid for it, were I to move it to Europe. One man’s funky Eurotrash is another man’s prized German oldtimer. That’s not a bad situation for me but for sure 99% of locals don’t know what it is, and my purchase was not expensive. The local value is still low and was completely unaffected by any ‘bump’ that may or may not be gone. I don’t care one way or the other: for me the plane is just a way to have cheap non-depreciating fun for decades, notwithstanding that it will be nicer when I sell it some day than when I bought it. I keep all my stuff nice with lots of attention to detail regardless of its market value but flying is about simple fun, not money, and capital not wasted on poor value for money toys can be used more productively.
In general buying what other buyers in a given market don’t recognize as an interesting asset, at least not right now, makes a lot of sense to me. In our case, the money not spent on depreciating retail priced toys bought four houses instead. With them money is the name of the game, not an unfortunate necessity of participation as with the plane. They were were not new when bought, but weren’t disposable junk either and have roughly tripled in value while we’re owned them. I also maintain them well and the rental income that’s increased in proportion to their appreciation in value can buy a lot of flying. Also my next motorcycle trip to the Alps and Corsica that I’m working on planning today
Another good idea along the same lines is that no matter where you travel, live where the weather doesn’t destroy your stuff. That way you’re not fighting an uphill battle to own and maintain it.
The important thing is that a novice should not be buying something that needs a lot of work. You need
To add to Peter’s list:
But if the price of overhauls continues to rise, as they do, presumably that will put a floor on prices?
Otherwise at some point it would be cheaper to switch to a low-hour aircraft than get the engine zero-timed!
DavidJ wrote:
Otherwise at some point it would be cheaper to switch to a low-hour aircraft than get the engine zero-timed!
Is a zero-timed overhaul on a TBO’d engine worth the investment before selling vs selling at TBO? Probably depends on the buyer…. some want a low-time engine and others are happy to buy a plane at TBO and then do the overhaul themselves. Registration might also play a role. For private N-reg operation, overhaul at TBO isn’t mandatory and condition is the deciding factor.
chflyer wrote:
For private N-reg operation, overhaul at TBO isn’t mandatory and condition is the deciding factor.
It isn’t mandatory under EASA either, if the aircraft is maintained under Part-ML, but merely a recommendation:
ML.A.302(c)(5)(d)
maintenance recommendations, such as time between overhaul (‘TBO’) intervals, issued through service bulletins, service letters, and other non-mandatory service information;
Clearly on EuroGA we all have individually and collectively a lot of knowledge some of which is because we do spend time here. However I’m familiar with many pilots who never really became interested in forums at all.
IMO, Those guys would more likely aim for an early time engine.
All the fuss has been done, the engine has gone through the early risk stage, and settled into it’s groove.
Personally I like the idea of a run-out engine with associated low price.
Its not surprising that the inflation adjusted prices are coming down as many aircraft ownerships are based on loan financing and interest rates has skyrocketed last few years. It takes potentially years for interest hikes to triggle down the entire economy. The real interest rate (adjusted for inflation) has gone from a big minus to something hovering around zero which still keeps a hand under the prices given in number of € the plane costs, but adjusted for inflation we are currently looking at a significant drop in prices I would say.
The special situation around covid with combination of low interest rates, high demand (driven by government induced cash in many cases) caused an immediate spike in prices – not just for planes.
Also related to asking prices on used aircraft, the US market seams to be more well-functioning in adapting prices to reality than the European market – probably because the number of planes for sale for a given type usually is much higher.
Agree the market for GA is softer, and bid-offer widen significantly when soft market conditions prevail. I follow the USA market, which for certain types seems to have a plausible correlation with tech stocks and airline captain remuneration. In this case you are still getting well presented airplanes being marked up in today’s market. This means they are advertised at a certain price on TAP, and a few weeks later are marked up significantly, one example has gone from $305k to $379k. The so called unicorns: fashionable upgrades, exhaustive and high quality maintenance, low time, immaculate no damage history, are in fact still appreciating. They may not even have a price tag advertised, but expect a significant premium to appraised value. The doggie, project aircraft do seem to be languishing. Access to high quality maintenance and knowledge to implement a serious upgrade program (not lipstick on a pig variety), seems to be an advantage.
