The end of AVGAS in Europe in 2025 ?

lionel wrote:

The Shell Luxembourg website still contains the statement that Shell V-Power (gasoline, 98 octane) doesn’t contain ethanol.

SHELL V-Power 98-100 and BP/ARAL Ultimate102 both officially claim to be ethanol free. According to data sheets and conversation with Petersen, Ultimate102 contains nothing they did not check on their STC path, so should be fine, while V-Power does have additives not (yet?) tested in aviation application – especially some ‘water active ingredients’. Don’t ask me what that means in particular. What I know from Mogas usage for a long time is – you need to change sealants and o-rings quite often to keep them operational, no big deal, but annoying i.e. for the fuel selector valves as this is usually a PITA to get to.

Peter wrote:

The 100UL promoters want to make money out of STC licensing. They will never make the fuel itself.

Correct. And that is the challenge for GAMI in the US. They won’t sell many STCs until there is a G100UL fuel widely available.

Beyond me why a fuel distributor in Europe doesn’t just negotiate a deal with GAMI to buy the STC, price based on some agreed potential target number of aircraft, and then give it away free and switch from 100LL to G100UL Europe-wide. How many litres of 100LL are sold annually in Europe?

Just for ballpark estimating, using 50hr/year average per aircraft @ 40ltr/hr over 5 years (10’000ltr) and $400/STC gives 400/10’000=$.04/ltr to cover the cost of the STC. The price of Avgas varies more than that from one country to the next.

you need to change sealants and o-rings quite often to keep them operational, no big deal,

Actually that is a very big deal, especially considering what happens if you miss something…

How many litres of 100LL are sold annually in Europe?

Working on Warter’s reported €300M market size, average retail price of €2, airport margins of 30%…

My guess would be that GAMI is driving some hard bargain and the fuel companies are trying to push them down. After all, they are not exactly falling over themselves to license the fuel

Still not big business compared with around 20 billion litres of fuel sold at pump stations in Germany alone.

Of course, but plenty big enough for a specialist company. You would not be in the FTSE100 but you would definitely be in the 100 below that.

One of the issues with Ethanol is that it eats fiberglass. Perhaps not an issue with old Cesnas but for aircraft with integral tanks in their fiberglass tanks a major issue. For the more pedantic, I understand the issue is not the liquid ethanol but the vapours which permiate the tanking membrane and then get into the fiberglass matrix and weaken the matrix.

Another issue with ethanol is that it absorbs water. This may not be an issue for road cars but what happens to your fuel at FL100 when its -10C or colder?

One question: all of this discussion is about “Europe”. Does this just mean EU? What about countries in the EEA (Switzerland, Norway, etc.) and the UK?

I don’t know about Norway, but in the context of this Avgas discussion Switzerland will be the same as the rest of the EU. Any changes, restrictions, etc that are applied to the EU will also impact Switzerland since it is integrated into the supply and delivery chains. Of course the UK can do its own thing so maybe pilots in the UK will be able to carry on their merry way as long as they stay within its borders.

One question: all of this discussion is about “Europe”. Does this just mean EU? What about countries in the EEA (Switzerland, Norway, etc.) and the UK?

Yes, this regulatory measure only affects the EU. Of course, it might also have second order effects on the European non-EU countries.

Still, some solution has to be and will be found.

Still the same bullshit all over the press about ethanol being the problem for seals, hoses and all. It is not the alcohol that swells o-rings or seals but the number of solvents in gasoline like acetone, toluol, butane etc. , Do your own test with Super 100 which is sold as containing NO ethanol: It will still swell NBR o-rings the same like E5 , E10 or whatever. Avgas is a totally different brew without these cheap thinners the mineral oil companies love for upping octane easily. They do NOT add ethanol if they don´t have to, like in super 98 or 100, so we use this fuel since 15 years in the radial. But certainly you look at all seals and o-rings in critical places for likely troubles when attacked by thinners. NBR will not dissolve at all but will swell and get quite soft. Best bet is teflon hoses , being quite stiff typically. But just as easy to do is Viton with all hoses and o-rings – no more troubles, same goes with cars , so there they got same materials as you´d have in the aircraft with super 98 . Ethanol attracting water may be a thing, but what percentage will you see in real life for having any effect in operation ? Has somebody ever detected water in the common water test from the drain valve from an aircraft with working fuel cap seals ?? But certainly this posting will not help dumping all that b.s. story telling about ethanol in modern fuel . . . . Vic