The data you have shared shows only 1,663 EASA PPL(A)s issued, plus 117 UK PPL(A)s. That’s a lot less than 2,500. It also shows 1,009 EASA PPL(A)s “re-issued”. What does “re-issued” mean? Does that simply mean that of the many PPL(A)s in existence only 1,009 required periodic reissue during that year (with all the others, however many, remaining valid without having to be re-issued?). (I am confused about these things requiring to be re-issued…I thought all that disappeared in the UK when the CAA passed over the rules to EASA.
It’s difficult to quantify a lot of this stuff. The total number of private licences issued including LAPLs etc was just short of 3000. I suppose the reissues are either expired 5 year licences which have been replaced with lifetime licences, or possibly the issue is further confused by people like me who have had EASA licences issued on the back of old UK CAA licences.
Anyway, the figuresseem to be way lower than those suggested by Peter.
Edit. Apologies to Peter! I’ve just noticed that he is apparently quoting US licences issued, not UK!
Is this an approach?
There are around 12,000 light GA aircraft in the UK, of which no doubt a significant minority are ramp or barn/hangar mummies. Conversely a significant proportion are flown by more than one active pilot. Perhaps there is a 15,000+ active PPL/MPPL/NPPL population?
The 65-74 year cohort is approximately 16% of the population and has, until we find the fountain of youth, a much higher mortality/morbidity rate – an estimate that this cohort may account for around 20% of pilots, and that on average 90% of these pilots will hang up their headset by the time they are 75 may seem reasonable. This is around 500 p.a. (200 for morbidity/loss of medical, 300 due to hanging up their headsets for age reasons).
The balance of younger pilots also have a mortality/morbidity rate, albeit lower, in addition to the relatively high lapse rate of initial PPLs. The natural background rate for the balance of say 12,000 pilots might be around 600-1,000?
To maintain the active population it would suggest that 2,500 new PPL issuance is probably around right, assuming a good 30-50% of these will lapse within one to three years after having got their PPL?
If the real rate is around 1,500, and recall there is the zero-to-hero industry boosting these licence numbers, then active PPL population may be declining at a significant rate (5% plus p.a.?)
It all looks very depressing. One can see why plane prices are falling. Let’s hope it all picks up again some time soon.
There are around 12,000 light GA aircraft in the UK
That itself is interesting because in 2002 I was talking to a CAA inspector (airworthiness / maintenance companies) and he said the UK GA fleet is 20k.
I would not be surprised if 12k was about right, today.
active PPL population may be declining at a significant rate (5% plus p.a.?)
50% in 10 years also seems the right order of magnitude, just looking at how many people are flying long-term.
Against that, airfield movements are still OK. The manager of Gloucester EGBJ posted on facebook the other day saying they had 80k movements. Shoreham EGKA is close to its old-time planning permission limit of some 70-80k. But most of that is probably PPL training, and that is what fails to produce long term pilots.
That’s why I have always said that the attrition rate is the thing that’s most worth attacking. Other stuff e.g. getting more people to train, is second-order. OTOH of course getting more people who are actually capable, financially and otherwise, to fly long-term to train would also be good.
I don’t like to moan about regulation, but I think that has a lot to do with it in this case. For example
Schools requiring check-outs every 28 days, often at dual rates
I have a PPL(H) using a school aircraft. I fly far less than I would do otherwise because of this requirement which is costly and a huge waste of time, particularly when taking passengers who have to wait around while you do it. What’s wrong with the 90-day rule (except it makes schools less money)?
Mandatory refresher training at an ATO even if your licence lapses by a day
I haven’t bothered to renew my MEP class rating because of this. I’ll do it when I undertake my IR training, which I’m due to commence shortly, but I can’t be bothered to go along to an ATO and spend hundreds of pounds just to get it renewed.
Other general regulatory hassle
For example: having to get someone to certify documents just to change an address, paying the CAA £70 odd when you renew a rating, not being able (under EASA) to revalidate under the 90-day rule with a safety pilot, increasing airport charges and immigration hassle – particularly in France and Spain. The list goes on.
Cost of ownership of aircraft
Regulation requiring expensive avionics upgrades – Mode S, 8.33khz just to name two. Hangarage hasn’t got any cheaper. AVGAS has gone through the roof. Absurd EASA costs – e.g. putting a USB power plug in a C182 cost £2000 for the change approval.
None of these things on their own makes a big difference, but you add them all together and there comes a point where people go “I can’t be bothered with this any longer” or “It’s all just too expensive” and give up.
Also…
Plus, I suspect, there’s the problem which is also hitting golf clubs big time: wives. Few women fly or like flying (let’s be honest) and they don’t like their husbands / partners being away from the family for a whole day at a weekend, spending a lot of money on something that they have zero interest in.
I am not sure about how many of those points, @Charlie, are EASA related.
The 1st is schools trying to (a) make money and (b) ensure that renters have at least a little bit of currency before they take the plane out. It’s been like that since for ever. The PPL average in the renter scene is somewhere around 10-20hrs/year.
The 2nd is one of the things which have pretty well killed the MEP scene. It is awfully expensive for a renter to keep MEP-legal. But I think this is quite old, too.
The 3rd was similar under JAA, with a £50 cheque every 5 years just for the PPL. And the loss of immigration-capable airports seems to be not EASA related but – especially in France – more of a kneejerk reaction to terrorism and the panic realisation that their police force is almost totally ineffective.
The 4th, 8.33, is absurd and nobody disagrees 
But I don’t know to what extent it is EASA related. It has been brewing for many years. Garmin made the GNS430 8.33-capable way back almost 20 years ago. It was EASA (as an EU agency) that pushed it through into law.
The last one has always been there. Up to 2006 I used to rent out my plane (to a carefully selected group) and the best funded people stopped flying due to “you are a father now; you can’t take risks like this” family pressure. It goes on everywhere. Perhaps more today as children become more of a focus for which one is supposed to drop everything and buy 50 Good Parenting books
A fun “EASA thread” is here
When I said “regulation” I didn’t mean EASA specifically – things like the 28 day rule in schools are probably insurance driven for example. When I first started I’m pretty sure even the 90 day rule had only just come in!
I don’t think the last point has always been there in the same way it is now – golf clubs are seeing the same thing happen as families become more “modern”.
Still, as I say, I don’t think any of these on their own stop people flying, it’s more when you add everything together people just decide they can’t be bothered any longer.
Charlie wrote:
Still, as I say, I don’t think any of these on their own stop people flying, it’s more when you add everything together people just decide they can’t be bothered any longer.
Exactly. What EASA has done is simply to add more.
Repeat it some more times, please. Maybe you’ll get tired of that old record, too, eventually.
Decline in private pilot numbers
An AOPA (US) email news item points to an Aviation Week news item about declining private pilot numbers (Less than half the number in 1980) and the increasing age of the remainder. Unfortunately the article can’t be read without a subscription, but the related letters can, and make interesting reading in their own right.
‘Cost’ is the recurring theme. Some writers even comment on the much greater cost issue in Europe, and one memorably refers to “a millenial generation who can’t put their phones down long enough to learn to fly” Ain’t that the truth.
