Neil wrote:
I note that Cirrus took the first deposits in 2006, and I’d wager if there are any live position holders from that time they will see the 10 year anniversary of their deposit sail by later this year without an aircraft.
You’re really not much of a risk taker now are you Neil 
Neil wrote:
As a reference point Cessna announced the CJ in 1989, first flight was in 1991, and first deliveries in 1993
The Mustang was a bit slower. Announced Sep 2002, certified Nov 2006, first customer aircraft April 2007.
Again, the Cirrus may be a revolutionary aircraft for private owners. Time will tell, assuming it gets certified. But silly claims undermine the point.
On the subject of decline of general aviation, I think that the light sport/uncertified markets are the most likely to drive growth. But I also do not think the glory days will ever return. The question is the rate of decline, not whether the decline can be arrested.
JasonC wrote:
On the subject of decline of general aviation, I think that the light sport/uncertified markets are the most likely to drive growth
Peter, time to move this thread to the uncertified section
JasonC wrote:
The question is the rate of decline, not whether the decline can be arrested.
Well at some point it will bottom out, so the question is where is that point ?
Michael wrote:
Well at some point it will bottom out, so the question is where is that point ?
Maybe it already has. Oil has dropped from 120 to 30 dollar per barrel in a year. Eventually that will help GA. The question is how.
LeSving wrote:
Maybe it already has. Oil has dropped from 120 to 30 dollar per barrel in a year. Eventually that will help GA. The question is how.
So can anyone tell me how much Avgas has dropped? I know there is a lag but even so what has it dropped from 6 months ago when the price/bbl was $45. So went from $120 to 45 and that was 6 months ago so todays price should reflect the $45 oil price and the lag should by now have been compensated. How much has the price dropped?
Last time (2 months ago) I checked at EDMA it was 2.60 something from 2.73 VAT included. I dont have access to the records but I dont remember much of a price drop.
Total France about 1.70€ as of 2 weeks ago
Silvaire wrote:
I think GDP (PPP) per capita is a better metric for total production. The roughly nine small countries higher in that regard than the US, none of which except Luxembourg are in the EU, typically have a beneficial natural resource or niche political position
It’s still not perfect, and especially when looking at who can afford GA, it doesn’t tell the right story.
GDP per capita is simply the average of total GDP divided by population, and it can be heavily skewed quite easily and you can draw false conclusions. The median income would be a better measure of how affordable GA is to a population.
For instance, the US GDP per capita is heavily skewed and gives a falsely high indication of typical income. It’s skewed by a small number of absurdly wealthy individuals. The median household income in the US is actually below the GDP per capita (and therefore median individual earnings even less).
The Isle of Man is even heavily more skewed. Our politicians were recently crowing how rich we were and how well we are doing, seeing the new GDP per capita number. But our GDP per capita is very heavily skewed by a small number of absurdly wealthy individuals. If Mr. Whittaker left the island tomorrow (ex-owner of properties like Manchester’s Trafford Park) – just that one individual leaving – it would actually cause a noticeable decrease in our GDP per capita. In reality the typical Manx resident is slightly less well off (lower wages and higher prices for everything) than their UK counterpart and our GDP per capita is massively skewed by a very small number of very wealthy individuals.
alioth wrote:
But our GDP per capita is very heavily skewed by a small number of absurdly wealthy individuals. If Mr. Whittaker left the island tomorrow (…) it would actually cause a noticeable decrease in our GDP per capita.
That doesn’t add up with the definition of GDP, which is “a monetary measure of the value of all final goods and services produced in a period of time”. So unless he also moves his firms, GDP should be unaffected by where he takes his residence, and the wealth of individuals in a country should not have an effect on its GDP (except indirectly when they choose to spend their money in that country).
Rwy20 wrote:
That doesn’t add up with the definition of GDP, which is “a monetary measure of the value of all final goods and services produced in a period of time”. So unless he also moves his firms, GDP should be unaffected by where he takes his residence, and the wealth of individuals in a country should not have an effect on its GDP (except indirectly when they choose to spend their money in that country).
Hence the French Revolution, which has been copied in most parts of the world in in some way or another with more or less successful result. Maybe it’s time for another one to get the GDP (and GA) moving?
