MedEwok wrote:
In these times, no country in Europe bar Russia and maybe Germany is large and prosperous enough to stand by itself. This will be painfully clear to the UK after December 31, 2020. And for Germany, leaving the EU would be disastrous too. The Scots will be well advised to seek immediate EU membership, should they become independent…
Well I have to disagree. Membership of the EU means you are no longer an independent state because you are then subject to the rules imposed by Brussels. Maybe Scotland will find that London was preferable to Brussels but time will tell.
I also believe that that the UK will prosper hugely when we are able to make our own decisions about our own industries, our own borders, our own laws etc and not have to seek EU approvals for export markets. As you say time will tell but time has already told about the value of keeping our own currency so we live not in hope but in expectation.
The SNP has devolved powers in a number of areas, in Education the snp have performed pretty poorly. I think particularly in maths and science they’re falling behind.
I would think you’ve perhaps forgotten about Switzerland, Norway and Iceland in your list of countries able to exist outside of mr V’s european empire.
The idea of the Scots being forced to adopt the euro is quite amusing though. They’d need to start printing 1 euro notes.
One of these SNP leaders and first ministers is presently on trial for attempted rape and sexual assault on multiple charges. The other apparently had no idea anything untoward was happening. Progressive politics.
It is surprisingly difficult to find out how much money Scotland consumes as a net figure. Maybe it would work, maybe not. It does have a huge social security bill. The Barnett Formula is a good starting point for googling. Taking a similar scenario, as Chancellor Kohl famously said, the ~1TN (1000BN) DM spent on the DDR post-unification was necessary otherwise the place would become a wasteland and the population would have simply moved to W Germany. Scottish people have UK passports and “same” currency, so the situation is identical.
The figure for N. Ireland seems to be widely known to be GBP 9BN/year – I believe it most recently was the Republic of Ireland Prime Minister who said no way could they entertain the idea of a united Ireland because they cannot afford the 9BN. The money would have to come from Brussels and it doesn’t appear likely there would be much enthusiasm there.
The Scottish polls show a constant level of support for independence, at around 45%.
They’d need to start printing 1 euro notes.
I once read a funny article about which Euro countries were allowed to print which notes. The €500 ones (no longer in print, I believe, because they had only two uses, and only one of these was paying for avgas) were printed in Germany, while at the other end of the scale Greece was allowed to print the €5 and €10 ones 
Reportedly, Greece did for a brief moment consider solving their crisis by running the machine(s) flat out, but I reckon there was a data link back to Brussels which would have prevented that.
Peter wrote:
Reportedly, Greece did for a brief moment consider solving their crisis by running the machine(s) flat out,
Haha, I didn’t know about that. Did they not have a problem where they discovered in some areas that the subisides being claimed (I think olive growing) was greater than the entire area of the region?
By shooting estates I mean estates where shooting deer/grouse/hares are the only source of income, on land which is not suited for agriculture.
Traditionally the land is kept almost tree-free.
The economic impact in Grand Junction which I observe is the spending in the town by the hunters, including passenger flights in light aircraft to see their hunt area. The Scottish Highland hunters appear to be fewer, but much wealthier, and not obvious in the town.
My home village has been taken over by retired people from the South, since the local fishermen lost their quotas on EU entry. I hear nothing about harassment of English people here. Our UK MP, our SMP, and our local Moray Councillor are all Conservative.
Edward Heath sold out the Scottish Fishing Industry on EU entry.
I’d expect a massive swing to Conservative and UK union if BJ got the fish back. There was a choice at the recent election.
The unmentioned problem at the election was UK debt, how to earn money, not how to spend it.
My understanding is also that support for Scottish independence is relatively stable at around 45%.
I infer that many Scots vote SNP not necessarily because of support for independence but because the SNP are the sharpest operators in terms of ensuring that Scotland gets the best financial deal from London. Exact numbers are hard to find and everyone will point to a different number that they say is important, but it is generally accepted that Scotland enjoys considerably greater public spending per capita than the rest of the UK.
It is hard to see the logic in the SNP wanting to be independent from the UK but part of the EU. I can only conclude that nationalistic sentiment is at the heart of it, because it can hardly be a positive economic step. If we do have IndyRef2 and Scotland leaves the union then the reality is that they will have to leave with nothing. In the run-up to IndyRef1 there was a lot of talk from the SNP about what they were ‘entitled to’ as part of any separation agreement (they thought they would take a portion of the UK armed forces, all the oil money, a portion of UK government foreign currency reserves, etc) but the reality is that there is no mechanism for them to fight for this other than asking nicely – they have no negotiating position and would end up leaving with whatever the UK government decides to give them.
The other important factor is that Spain is almost certain to veto the entry of an independent Scotland to the EU because of the precedent it would set and the implications for the Catalan independence movement. The SNP have this idea that they would be fast-tracked in, but I don’t believe that is realistic.
Fenland_Flyer wrote:
Well I have to disagree. Membership of the EU means you are no longer an independent state because you are then subject to the rules imposed by Brussels. Maybe Scotland will find that London was preferable to Brussels but time will tell.
Rules which member states have a say in. As a small country, if you’re not in the EU or whatever, you’re very much the junior partner in any trade negotiation with the EU, India, China, Russia, the USA or whoever. You’re going to have to accept rules imposed on you by these countries or trading blocs, in which you have absolutely zero say – either accept the rules, or accept encumbrance on your trade with them. At least if you’re a member of the EU, you have a say in the rules (remember that a lot of EU rules actually came from the British) and you have quite a lot of collective power when making trade deals and you can’t be pushed around so easily by other trading blocs.
That is the reality we face with globalisation, and I think we are going to find ourselves to be a “rule taker” in the future to make trade deals.
Relevant to this forum, come 2021, if the UK is still in EASA, the UK will be a rule taker with zero say on the subject we care about in this forum the most, when right now the UK is a rule maker.
Does the 4th or 5th largest economy in the world count as a small country?
Does the 4th or 5th largest economy in the world count as a small country?
What do Germany or India have to do with Scottish independence?
I see similarities between Scottish independence and Slovak independence.
