Cobalt wrote:
So both sides will be less well off.
That is the tragedy of the whole mess. Everyone is going to be worse off, at least in the short and medium term.
As for Norway, I have been there a few times. It is a country of beauty and great people, I enjoyed myself a lot. Tromsoe, Someroy, Stavanger and Haugesund, Svalbard, lovely places.
BUT: Expensive even for an average income Swiss like me. At Stavanger, I remember trying to find an affordable restaurant. No way. To have a Beer there, I can have a meal elsewhere. Svalbard, ok, there I can understand it, but still. Very expensive indeed.
Maybe this corresponds with LeSving’s statement that Lidl did not make it there, maybe the people are so used to luxury prices that they become suspicious of any discounter…
Guys, forget about food and pharma, that’s just a diversion. Here’s the clinching argument.
That is the tragedy of the whole mess. Everyone is going to be worse off, at least in the short and medium term
Some will benefit. International trade is competitive. Often fiercely so. The scene is littered with corpses of companies which tried to enter some foreign market or got wiped out by foreign competition. So domestic businesses will benefit from less competition. It is PC to say competition is good but it is also very destructive. Just how many £1 t shirts do people need?
That is the tragedy of the whole mess. Everyone is going to be worse off, at least in the short and medium term.
As I said, there is a price for freedom. Those who proclaimed it would be a walk in the park were lying. It can work, but it will require a lot of dedication by the British people to make happen what the Brexiteers envisioned. The tragedy of that is, that this is not the vision of more than maybe half of the people, so there will be conflict and discord.
Nationalized economy can work but it will mean a lot of efford by the population. You have to basically shut out imports of goods which are also produced at home while allowing import of goods which are not. That is what Trump is doing to an extent in America. But to make it work, it would mean much stricter import regulation. This is what Switzerland does with meat for instance, as long as there is Swiss beef, import of foreign beef is taxed so prices become unattractive. If the UK would want that, it would have to stop import of all goods which are made locally, steel, dairy, meat, cars, everything. That would mean that the steel mills e.t.c. can restart and the farmers will be able to sell their goods e.t.c. but of course this means, no more cheapo imports from China or Europe. That will cause a steep rise in price, it will also cause more jobs and a concentration on local produce. It does not necessarily mean a stop of import of stuff not produced in Britain, such as Oranges or Coconuts, but it will severely restrict what can be imported. That is the radical variant.
What is difficult to predict is if the EU will exercise a blockade policy against the UK in case of a hard brexit, banning imports and exports. In which case, Britain would have to buy and sell elsewhere, such as the US, Russia, China and import foodstuffs from Africa, Asia and America. Also this is feasible but it will mean an increase in prices. Of course in such a trade war situation, one reaction would probably include measures to regulate the amount of EU citizens living in Britain, many would leave on their own but others would have to encouraged to leave. This of course means more jobs for British citizens but also jobs which they were so far not too keen on. And it means that what is produced in Britain wil be enough to satisfy the demand of a smaller population.
But there are chances in this, they are just different than before. Concentration on national production and a massive reduction in international trade will be a fundamental change in how the British economy will work. But that does not mean that it won’t, just differently. The transition will be quite a challenge however.
In the case of a hard Brexit in March 2019, the easy solution is surely to – in the short term – have no border controls/tariffs for goods coming from the EU? The food will still be complying with the same standards as they were on the last day of Feburary 2019, the UK will have turned EU law into domestic law, so on the first day of Brexit the regulations will still actually be the same – and the UK can choose to not impose any tariffs or customs checks on EU imports until they have a system to efficiently process imports from the EU in place. That way, it’s still business as usual for the supermarkets on March 2019. The EU might immediately throw up barriers, but struggling to export food from the UK isn’t going to cause empty supermarket shelves in the UK, especially if the UK doesn’t put up any customs checks in the short term.
Even the most fervent Brexiteer doesn’t want empty supermarket shelves or social disorder, and so will act pragmatically.
While it’s certainly correct for any business to consider worst case scenarios, it doesn’t necessarily mean it’s likely to happen.
alioth wrote:
Even the most fervent Brexiteer doesn’t want empty supermarket shelves or social disorder, and so will act pragmatically.
There isn’t much evidence of pragmatism among fervent Brexiteers, I fear.
In the case of a hard Brexit in March 2019, the easy solution is surely to – in the short term – have no border controls/tariffs for goods coming from the EU?
Unfortunately I dont think the Europeans are prepared to trust us with the duties for one moment any further than they can see us (which they cant even across the shortest distance).
Moreover, and to be fair to them, we will have had two years to sort it out, and if we cant manage to do that, then you might question whether we ever will, or if we should have agreed a timetable we couldnt keep, in the first place.
Timothy wrote:
There isn’t much evidence of pragmatism among fervent Brexiteers, I fear.
I agree. I think they are mostly driven by “it will be alright on the night” brigade, without actually having much idea if it will, and definitely without putting in place the procedures to give it a fighting chance – or at least that is how I see it at the moment. Hopefully they are like swans, appearing calm and collected on the surface but frantically paddling underneath without telling us so they can pull the rabbit out the hat at the last minute. That is my remaining hope at the moment.
Unfortunately I dont think the Europeans are prepared to trust us with the duties for one moment any further than they can see us (which they cant even across the shortest distance).
The dynamics of the “negotiation process” (it isn’t much of a negotiation; more of a posturing for public consumption) are interesting but wholly predictable. Two years is a silly long time to agree the various things. The best thing for both sides is to continue the status quo in most areas and those could be readily agreed in one sitting. The “big stuff” the EU can never agree to because their Job #1 is to scare the hell out of any country which might be getting the same idea – and there are a few of them around Europe, if you look at the political changes taking place. The current process is not a normal business type of negotiation; rather more like this infamous example 
So I think the EU will not make life easy even on the last day, or the day after, or after that. They just can’t. The UK is going to have to look after itself. And I am confident it can, and will. Anything better will be a bonus.
Hopefully they are like swans, appearing calm and collected on the surface but frantically paddling underneath without telling us
That would be the correct procedure.
Even the negotiation with Brussels cannot be done in the open – as it has been, mostly destructively.
