…on a side note my 5 year old (to me, 45 years young this year) VW 1300 appears to have doubled in value. Not sure if the 90HP SC has performed as well but it is certainly up on its renovation cost since its barn find days, sometimes I see EUR70k being asked for them on planecheck.
VW 1300 appears to have doubled in value
Probably because it is not affected by the VW software fraud 
This is much bigger than most people know and has the potential to render diesel VWs unsaleable if they make the “fix” MOT-mandatory. I have been told that pre-ECU VWs hold their value because they have a nice market as airport runaround cars in the “3rd World” where permanent airport parking is still free, so you land, walk to the car, reconnect the battery and drive away.
as an aircraft owner it’s depressing that if you want to upgrade, you’d have to give what you own away most likely. I had to do this with the Aerostar. Then again, the upside is you can lowball the new one and get it.
Exactly – same as houses, where you lose out in a falling market only if you are wanting to move downmarket permanently. You gain all the way if you are moving up. And if you are not moving up or down, you are not losing anything – it is just emotional
By my observation, there is a broad parallel between all types of privately used vehicles including planes when it comes to depreciation: if it is both sustainable by the owner over an indefinite period and stylish or otherwise appealing, it will hold its value indefinitely. If it is complex to maintain, particularly if requiring specialist care, and has lots of ‘widgets’ (features) that break and become obsolete, it will depreciate even if it was top of the line when new.
Utility in service (or lack thereof) has only a limited impact on depreciation – in private ownership, over the long term everything becomes a collectors item (toy) as much as a tool. Simple, emotionallly appealing stuff holds its value, aided but not principally driven by utility. In aircraft, the yellow J3 Cub is the ultimate example… resolutely holding its value while comparable 2008 Light Sports have plummeted in value over the 10 years since introduction.
One big difference in cars and planes imho.
There are plenty of new cars an average person who doesn’t sink all his money into a 50 year old plane can afford.
There are no new planes which any normal person can afford.
In principle, the utility value of a 50 year old Bonanza is exactly the same as of a new SR22, particularly if it is upgraded to a good standard.
So for someone who wants to drive to work, he does not rely on the used market or he can get a good value with a 2-3 year old car. So 20-30 year old cars of the normal variety are worth nothing at all.
An average person who wants to fly a 150 kt cruiser has the choice in the used market with 30-50 year old airplanes like a Bonanza C to E or a vintage Mooney or an Arrow II or III. That is why these planes have still gotten some value.
The trouble is, there are millions of drivers and there are less and less pilots who wish to go the way of ownership. Consequently the prices drop to nothing.
I got over the concept of ‘newer is better’ in my 20s and never looked back. It takes you nowhere but onto a tread mill owned by somebody else.
Factory built 150 kt cruisers are a small market, not representative of GA as a whole. They are hard to sell worldwide because their natural role, transporting people to out of way places, has been eclipsed by low cost airlines and cheap rental cars. Unless the 150 kt cruiser can also do something else, like for example an RV, it isn’t of great interest to the market: too complex, not so much fun.
The Cessna 195 has three specialist shops who are good at re building airframes on proper jigs and in effect producing properly refurbished aircraft – which go for $120-150k, roughly the price of Cub Crafters refurbished Super Cub, and a fraction of a new Carbon Cub. The combination of radial technology and transport category build quality, the 195 was known as the Businessliner, makes this type likely to continue to hold value. Assuming you keep it out of the weeds. Flying magazine pilot reports of the 1950’s described handling as excellent, but then everybody was trained in tailwheels back then. Many a jet captain ended up groundlooping them having let their tailwheel skills atrophy.
1200lbs useful load, 135 KTAS and 14 usgph and a 18,000 foot service ceiling.
The above example is from Barron’s and is offered for $120k, it has the Jacobs 755-B2 engine which is the preferred engine.
The last aircraft i sold went for less than 5% below asking price, through a UK broker.
I think it all depends on a realistic asking price.
A friend of mine is a FedEx training captain, and had a beautiful C195 plus a slightly newer C172. His routine was to complete a FedEx trip and then fly his own plane to his airpark home. The reason for owning the 172 was so he could fly home when tired… he didn’t want to land the 195 unless he was completely sharp.
C195s seem to have sold in the range of $60K to $120K forever. A guy I knew bought a nice one at a bargain price in the lower part of that range. He was careful with transition training and did OK but sadly groundlooped it later on, after which it went off to the rebuild shop under new ownership. I guess there’s a reason 195s have good support for airframe rebuilds 
Piper Cubs are fashionable. They sell for much more than a Jodel DR1050, both on UK LAA Permit, both O200 engine.
Here are before and afters (err the photos are in the wrong sequence :))of N1558D, the before is after a groundloop with 15-20knot quartering crosswind. The 195 was nearly uninsureable because of ground loop incidents, a result of rusty skills, poor maintenance of the brakes/tailwheel or poor airmanship. The 500-600 still operational (out of 1080 produced) seem to have been tamed somewhat due to being held to much higher maintenance standards these days.
