Graham wrote:
Exeter are better than most, probably because their part of the country is quiet…The better ones do it without asking.
Yes, I have 4 data points but I completely agree with this
On the accident, it is not clear how much severe icing was? but it feels a big gap between forecast and actual…
N264DB is listed as a piston Malibu, actually an original one 310hp version.
Why anyone would fly this low is beyond me and why a private operator would carry a VIP also.
Looks like a piston Malibu.
Mooney_Driver wrote:
Why anyone would fly this low
Ice.
Peter wrote:
but it is the ICAO-mandated ATC job demarcation which ATC unions carefully guard.
It might be that UK ATC unions carefully guard this, but where does ICAO say that a FISO can’t use radar?
FISOs don’t need ICAO licenses and I’ve checked the section on FIS in both Annex 11 and Doc 4444 and can’t find any restrictions on the use of radar in FIS.
In fact, Doc 4444 explicitely states how radar can be used in FIS :
8.11.1:
The information presented on a situation display may be used to provide identified aircraft with:
a) information regarding any aircraft observed to be on a conflicting path with the identified aircraft and suggestions or advice regarding avoiding action;
b) information on the position of significant weather and, as practicable, advice to the aircraft on how best to circumnavigate any such areas of adverse weather (see 8.6.9.2, Note);
c) information to assist the aircraft in its navigation
Graham wrote:
I don’t think Bournemouth is really relevant. At the altitude and location (5,000ft, later cleared to descend to 2,300) the pilot would have had to be working Jersey Control.
Bournemouth LARS only because you can usually get a service from them after 50N, so that might have been his next point of contact as he was nearly at 50N. At 50N you usually have three options Plymouth Mil. (often closed), Bournemount Lars, (both useful for a radar service) and London Info (but unable to provide radar).
He would have been IFR in the zone if in IMC, but I am not sure how he filed VFR out of France unless there was a night VFR corridor. My understanding is that otherwise VFR at night in France is not accepted?
It would be surprising given the pilot’s huge experience and the routes flown if he did not have an IR. Perhaps expediency determined a non IFR flight plan, and perhaps he thought it was better to get below the icing, ahving picked up ice at 5,000 feet. It seems strange that at 2,000 feet on the evening in question he was in cloud and severe icing, but then I havent seen the area forecast, and entirely possible. Never the less, if the rumours are to be believed then presumably there must have been some indication given to CIs zone because otherwise it can only be speculation.
but it feels a big gap between forecast and actual…
There is no such thing as an icing forecast. Well, not one that is worth more than the photons coming out of the LCD pixels. You can guess how I know, and it is from many exposures I know there are loads of pretty websites which show icing potential but they tell you nothing (of real value) which isn’t blindingly obvious from the MSLP charts.
At ~4000ft near EGMD I picked up some 3cm in 5 mins. Smooth stratus, 1500ft base, 4500ft tops. I posted about it here a few times. Another 5-10 mins and it will bring down any plane without de-ice. Boots will just delay it, and/or they may bridge – especially if not used right. TKS would cope, all the time the stuff is flowing, and I happen to know that too.
The problem, I am fairly sure, is that this pilot could not do legal IFR, and many pilots, especially UK ones, are heavily conditioned by training (and other post-training exposure) to comply with ATC and not bust CAS etc even if means saving their life. In the UK getting a legit “pop up IFR clearance” – the legit way to get out of this in a PA46 – is virtually impossible especially for any significant distance and certainly would take minutes, possibly many minutes, of coordination. Even in France it can take many minutes even in a clear emergency (look up N2195B).
It is possible it was an IR holder flying at 5000ft for some other reason, however. There have been many fatals of IR holders flying basically VFR, often for reasons which aren’t clear.
Peter wrote:
t is possible it was an IR holder flying at 5000ft for some other reason, however. There have been many fatals of IR holders flying basically VFR, often for reasons which aren’t clear.
I understand the low altitude due to not busting Class A, but why would anyone choose to fly VFR, at night, with weather less than “good”, across the English channel, on a capable machine such as a Malibu?
From France to the UK they must have filed a flight plan in any case. It’s not like flying VFR involved any less paperwork.
Also, IFR flying is just easier and safer when you actually need to fly from A to B, as was the case of this flight.
Peter wrote:
At ~4000ft near EGMD I picked up some 3cm in 5 mins. Smooth stratus, 1500ft base, 4500ft tops.