Arne wrote:
Happened to me 3 years ago. Forecast ceiling at 2500ft went all the way down to 0.
3 years ago is 3 years ago 
. In last 35 years (that I’m in aviation) I have witnessed tremendous development in meteorology. Just in last 5 years forecasting models have been advancing that it’s hard to compare them to tools available in the past. And availability of data and tools to general public are better than ever. However, that doesn’t mean that forecasts are 100% certain and that all phenomena can be precisely predicted (we all know that fog sometimes is really hard to forecast).
Emir wrote:
With today’s weather services it’s pretty hard to imagine sudden and non-forecasted weather deteriorating (at least some probability should be mentioned in forecast)
Happened to me 3 years ago. Forecast ceiling at 2500ft went all the way down to 0.
ivark wrote:
The only problem was that once over the sea no visible horizon even at 3000 ft. Later I read in the paper that there was a smoke from forest fires in russia.
In the summer you get that from moisture alone.
In our part of the (somewhat) United Kingdom it is usually not a problem to get a pop-up VFR to IFR clearance. We do it as and when required. No need for a prior flight plan.
For instance, with no local weather stations there’s often no way of knowing whether the southern uplands can be crossed safely under VFR, short of taking off and eyeballing them.
That’s true, but if you can fly IFR (needs the full IR to do this) then you have unlimited access to controlled airspace, and can climb above the IMC, limited only by aircraft performance.
So IR holders spend most of their time in IMC and sunshine
You may not get a climb right away (ATC often have to coordinate) but you will get it a lot quicker than if you were VFR and asked for a pop-up clearance.
It’s not quite that simple; if you could get a TB20 to go to FL350, its TAS of say 150kt would be too low and ATC would not want you there, but in the general context of below FL250 there is no issue because almost nobody flies there.
In a small aircraft such as a 172, I think flying in clouds is always dangerous, unless you are sure that they will be non freezing stratus. The risk in flying in a cumulus is always to get caught in heavy turbulences and to loose control of the aircraft. That is why in marginal weather I prefer to fly VFR, so that I can fly around suspect clouds. Nevertheless I tend to, in marginal weather, file a Z flight plan that becomes IFR at the IAF, so that I can fly an IFR approach just in case, and that it makes it easier to go IFR at any time.
Once I had to climb because I had inadvertently entered a cloud, and I did not request a clearance before doing it, I just said that I had to climb because I inadvertently lost VMC conditions, and that I was IMC, I would have said panpan if they hadn’t issued a clearance before I got into CAS. Don’t wait for a clearance if you have to take action, just do it and tell it, ATS will manage it.
Of course, in such flights, the preparation must be thorough. You have to know where CAS is, where the airways are what the safety altitude is, and of course where you are.
Last week I was flying from EETU to EFHF, about 120nm. CAVOK everywhere enroute. The only problem was that once over the sea no visible horizon even at 3000 ft. Later I read in the paper that there was a smoke from forest fires in russia..
Peter wrote:
So it isn’t usually a case of “not getting wx”, although you would be amazed at the % of IR holders who don’t know anything about the wx sources which to EuroGA readers are common knowledge.
On my recent trip to Turkey I realized that GA pilots there are less aware of different weather resources but some of these resources are not available in their area, so no surprise. Also, this was no surprise for me in Europe 10 years ago when people were less online in general and when these resources were more rare and scarce but today with availability of windy, meteox, sat24, ogimet and similar (including weather briefing in autorouter) it’s hard to believe that someone can be ignorant on this topic.
With today’s weather services it’s pretty hard to imagine sudden and non-forecasted weather deteriorating (at least some probability should be mentioned in forecast). Also, it’s not easy to imagine why someone who has IR wouldn’t file IR plan (I, Z or Y whichever suits) from the beginning.
I reckon the main factors where IR holders (a non IR holder cannot legally request an IFR clearance unless it is a mayday, and then it isn’t wise unless he can actually fly on instruments / can easily reach VMC by a climb) got killed were
The accident reports for the above don’t tell the whole story; you had to know the people concerned.
So it isn’t usually a case of “not getting wx”, although you would be amazed at the % of IR holders who don’t know anything about the wx sources which to EuroGA readers are common knowledge.
Being based at Rochester [EGTO] in Southeast England I often file ‘Z’ plans.
This allows one to get away from the Gatwick/Heathrow area VFR where an ‘I’ plan frequently takes you “round the sun to get to the moon “.
I then pick up the IFR section at the point of my choosing.
With today’s weather services it’s pretty hard to imagine sudden and non-forecasted weather deteriorating (at least some probability should be mentioned in forecast). Also, it’s not easy to imagine why someone who has IR wouldn’t file IR plan (I, Z or Y whichever suits) from the beginning.
