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Fewer pilots flying more hours? (in the US)

I’ve been paying between $600 and $1600 for transatlantic airline tickets since around 1989. They’re generally cheaper in real terms (considering inflation) today but the prices have stayed about the same or drifted a little higher. A friend says that the same is true going back to about 1970. What has come down in price is commercial flights within Europe.

My least expensive transatlantic flight was in 1989, when for a period nobody wanted to fly Pan Am. Now that I think about it, it may have been even cheaper than I mention above (the number $387 has come to mind…), and that was a big factor in me choosing that time to make my first European motorcycle trip. I wasn’t too concerned about another Pan Am terrorist incident. I’ve made a huge number of commercial transatlantic flights since and flown my own planes locally too, starting mostly in 2002… Many things can be done over time, when you start young and earn them. Cheaper commercial travel just makes more money available.

Last Edited by Silvaire at 03 Feb 17:10

Alpha_Floor wrote:

Also in most of the Western World societies are ageing rapidly, birth rates are at a record low and the demographic pyramid is more like a cocktail glass. This surely has something to do with it.

Flying has always been very expensive but today it is losing in attractiveness as there are other forms of cheap entertainment and cheap travel. Young folk would rather spend 100 GBP on a return ticket from the UK to somewhere warm in Europe rather than paying for one flight hour.

+1

I got my PPL in 1992. I payed around 2.5k in € equivalent. At that time the cheapest ticket I could get to the US and back was about the same or more. Today a PPL cost 10k+ in € equivalents. With that money a young backpacker type person can fly with airlines around the world, visiting every continent, have a great time for a year.

The elephant is the circulation
ENVA ENOP ENMO, Norway

Based on his previous posts, I don’t believe NCYankee files an FAA medical application any more, but he and many others like him are still burning AVGAS…

The one unknown (for me anyway) is whether FAA Basic Med pilots are requested to report their flight hours to FAA in some way. I’ve stuck with a 3rd class medical, however a great many pilots have switched. If flight hours documented via filed FAA medical applications are rising and Basic Med pilot hours aren’t even included, US flying hours are surely on the upswing.

I’m surprised to see how many US based planes are (all of a sudden, in spring 2019) being ADS-B OUT equipped in advance of the 2020 FAA deadline applicable to busy terminal areas. A year ago friends were discussing that 2019 would be a great time to buy a plane, with aging pilot owners coming under pressure financially and with time running out for them in two senses. I’m not so sure now there will be as many such planes as predicted, although I’m sure some nice planes won’t be equipped by the deadline and will be stranded in their hangars within applicable airspace. Those grounded planes will then be good acquisition targets for buyers who have the ADS-B thing figured out, in other words those who know how to do it inexpensively. That could also increase flying hours because the new buyers will be more active than the guys who were hanging on to ownership mainly for emotional reasons, and not flying much.

Last Edited by Silvaire at 02 Feb 22:30

NCYankee wrote:

A more complete and accurate method is gas sales.

Why would it?

Provided nobody is cheating on their logged hours…

Gas sales can stay constant and flight hours increase as fleets become more efficient…

EDDW, Germany

I think young people today aren’t interested in flying as much as young people 50 years ago, when “all other parameters are held constant”. This is what is making the private population age and shrink.

Also in most of the Western World societies are ageing rapidly, birth rates are at a record low and the demographic pyramid is more like a cocktail glass. This surely has something to do with it.

Flying has always been very expensive but today it is losing in attractiveness as there are other forms of cheap entertainment and cheap travel. Young folk would rather spend 100 GBP on a return ticket from the UK to somewhere warm in Europe rather than paying for one flight hour.

It feels like flying isn’t anything “special” today anymore as it was in, say, the 70s.

EDDW, Germany

Peter wrote:

The FAA has numbers for hours flown because you supply it at your FAA medical.

Peter,

A more complete and accurate method is gas sales.

KUZA, United States

Anecdotal evidence from the airports I frequent points to a VERY busy training scene. It’s also evident in our club, where over the last couple of years there has been a big influx of young(ish) members and the airplanes fly pretty much all the time. In fact, we’re looking to add another bird to the fleet. Also, the flight school next to us here in KSMO is incredibly busy. I’m not sure if this has reversed the long-term downward trend, but there are certainly many, many young people learning to fly.

Reading AOPA magazine I have the impression that the total number of active pilots in the US may actually have started rising after many years of the well recognised declines. Various factors:
1) Very successful AOPA “Rusty Pilot” program to get lapsed PPLs back in the air
2) Huge demand for new commercial pilots causing the once horrendous airline starter salaries to rise significantly and drawing more trainees into the system
3) As a frequent visitor to the US I have the impression that the US feels fat and happy. Economy has been growing strongly, wages are rising, people are making money, avgas is cheap.

The downside is that apparently there is a suddenly a huge shortage of second hand trainers – C172s etc. The flight schools are so busy they have scooped them all up.

Upper Harford private strip UK, near EGBJ, United Kingdom

Peter wrote:

Against this, I believe, there is a constant downward trend in the pilot population numbers.

Just a personal impression: Currently the pilot market in the US is fantastic (regionals paying hiring bonuses, majors hiring thousands of pilots, pt91 and pt135 GA flying is paying better too) and these news have trickled to the bottom, and I think many people are opting against high priced university education and are rather pursuing cheaper 4 year degrees at lower level colleges and investing in pilot training.

always learning
LO__, Austria

Lower fuel price is one factor I could point to that correlates to the last 3-4 year period: 100LL is about $4.50 per USG versus $5.50 in 2015. The economy is also substantially stronger now, with very low unemployment.

Foreign student training doesn’t seem much different now versus 5 years ago – it’s still a big factor in movements at some of the busier US airports.

Last Edited by Silvaire at 01 Feb 21:02
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