Corona / Covid-19 Virus - General Discussion (politics go to the Off Topic / Politics thread)

First case here from a student/teacher (not confirmed) that was in Italy. Affected school has been shut down for 2 weeks as a precaution. It’s about 10 mins walk from where I work.

I’ve just heard from a ski chalet owner in Italy, who was booked up through to end of April, that in past 24hrs totally everybody has cancelled. It’s like a bomb has hit the place.

There must be many thousands of perfectly viable businesses who will be hit badly by the pandemic. I wonder whether there will be any relief in order to prevent them from going under due to e.g. 6/12 missed mortgage payments. I hope so.

Much like TDS (Trump derangement syndrome) except with more reason behind it.

For every loser there is a winner

It’s looking like good story in bad movies. Rich people afraid to catch a cold are “escaping”…

I have friends in Africa that are telling that if they don’t report case, it’s basically because they can’t test it… This friend has been sick for a week with a strange cold…

It is sad to see how stupid and vulnerable our societies are.

I stopped caring for all media reports about SARS2-CoV and only rely on the professional channels open to doctors like me (and also to the general public … this information is not secret but many people are bad at filtering relevant and high quality information in today’s world – one of the main causes of panic).

It has become clear that

• At least 80% of all infected persons experience only minor or no symptoms, similar to a common cold (understandable, since the previously known four strains of Coronavirus make up about 1/4 of all cases of common cold)
• basic hygiene, like washing your hands regularly, not touching your face with unwashed hands, not sneezing into your hands and keeping your distance to others (2m is enough) work effectively at minimizing the spread of the virus
• The elderly and people with chronic heart or lung conditions are most at risk. They should avoid large groups of people if possible
• the virus seems slightly more contagious than Influenza, and several times more lethal, with the mortality rate probably somewhere between 0.7 and 1.5% (Influenza is at about 0.1 to 0.2%)
• unless one has severe respiratory symptoms, the best case of action is to stay home if infected. This will help reduce the spread of SARS 2-CoV.
• Unless belonging to an at-risk group, there is no need for a face mask, you’re only contributing to their shortage for the professionals if you buy or steal one (the latter is a serious problem in our hospital right now!)
• Face masks do not protect from infection with certainty, but help reduce the risk. Their best usage is to have the infected wear them, as it helps reduce transmission to others
• Unless this year’s winter flu gets really bad (doesn’t look like it), the health system should be able to cope with Coronavirus.
• A vaccine against the virus will not be available for another year at minimum
• The virus might become endemic after the current epidemic, meaning it might recirculate seasonally just like the flu. Nobody knows this for sure though
• China reports fewer new cases than before, meaning the worst might already be over there. This does not (yet) hold true for Europe.
• The virus seems to be unable to survive warm temperatures (roughly >27°C) for relevant time periods, meaning the epidemic will most likely end in the summer at the latest

Thank you for this fact-based recap of the situation.

MedEwok wrote:

The virus seems to be unable to survive warm temperatures (roughly >27°C) for relevant time periods, meaning the epidemic will most likely end in the summer at the latest

Luckily I’m heading to Yucatan on next Tuesday

Thanks for this summary and I hope panic level will decrease in following days. The impact to economy (especially tourist and transport related businesses as well as energy sector) is pretty big and definitely non-proportional to the level of threat. Stock market is severely impacted mainly without any real reason but that’s another story…

What is really surprising is how few cases there have been in the UK, given the numbers of Chinese returning to private schools, colleges and universities. We are now several incubation times down the road and still there are only about 50 cases. People are saying there is a huge number about to appear but the have been saying that for weeks. And so far nearly everybody has been traced directly to having travelled from one of the obvious places.

One explanation might be that people who think they may have it are staying at home, rather than be unceremoniously dragged out to an isolation ward in a hospital where they will likely catch something even worse

The stock market reflects sentiment, and sentiment is what drives the economy The Italian economy in particular might take a big hit.