Excellent article here about the likely future path, about the most sensible thing I’ve seen written since the beginning:
Bottom line: it will be with us for a long while yet. For once I find myself agreeing with C210_Flyer – the “second wave” will happen, i.e. cases (and deaths) will increase again, but it won’t get anywhere close to overwhelming the medical system, which is what actually matters.
Are we speaking of asymptomatic indiviuals
From what I have read, the most effective CV19 spreaders are not asymptomatic.
They are just people who feel a bit crap and take some paracetamol etc. Like most people actually when they feel a bit sh*t and want to go to work…
I am hoping that one good result of this epidemic might be that people who feel “a bit sh*t” will stay at home and not come to work, not go to the gym, etc.
It won’t end well when the borders finally open and the Economy is destroyed.
The other day they had some Scilly Isles people on TV, almost in tears, seeing their livelihoods destroyed, but because they were the business owners, they could not get any money from the govt. Your employees can get the 80% but if it is just you, and you are a “company director” and not a “sole trader” you don’t get anything. There is a fair bit of “old money” on the Channel Islands so they probably feel a bit smug but there will be nothing left of the tourist sector.
Guernsey already refers to Alderney as “1800 drunks clinging to a rock”… the place is fighting for survival.
I wonder what is happening on the islands north of Europe (the German etc ones)? Are they also in total quarantine?
it won’t get anywhere close to overwhelming the medical system, which is what actually matters.
I tend to agree. As yet nobody knows; it is possible that social distancing is actually pretty effective by itself. We’ve just done a few miles’ walk up on the local hills. A lot of people out from the nearby town (Brighton) – far more than we normally see in this strange place called “countryside”. Most are avoiding you by a good 2m even in the open air. Well, except the young ones 
Yes; a good article I think. Thanks for posting it.
johnh wrote:
Bottom line: it will be with us for a long while yet. For once I find myself agreeing with C210_Flyer – the “second wave” will happen, i.e. cases (and deaths) will increase again, but it won’t get anywhere close to overwhelming the medical system, which is what actually matters.
I too find myself in the odd position of somewhat agreeing with @C210_Flyer. I doubt any country will fully lock down again as the economic cost will be too high. Outside the US which is too hard to call as it is still going through its first wave, so long as health systems can cope then that is all we can ask for. A vaccine is of course a game changer.
The German islands are open for tourists as are most other tourist locations in Germany. However, as the holiday season has started some places have been totally overrun and are now only open for people who stay at least one night.
New infections are pretty low at the moment around here. We more or less get larger outbreaks (up to 100) where people beg for it. That means people doing foolish things (going to church including singing) or where people are held like cattle (seasonal workers, slaughterhouse employees). These outbreaks are caused by the super spreaders which is a good thing because it makes the outbreaks more controllable. By limiting the number of contacts to other people from 100 to 10 you all of a sudden only get one tenth of new infections (under the assumption that the super spreader infects all his contacts). Whereas in a situation with the same R value but where people who infect others infect only two to three other people, a mild distancing which allows most contacts but forbids larger crowds wouldn’t be effective enough to stop the virus.
Regarding vaccines, Im very concerned that it will be rushed to market due to politics and not science based safety of use. They are using new techniques to produce the vaccine. There is also concern that once inoculated and a second event of infection occurs that those people will have an immune enhancement phenomena. Just as the article stated. I would like it tested six ways to Sunday.
Also I would like to have an independent investigation into the origins of the virus. Fort Detrick, UNC, Wuhan, Harvard, connection.
Peter wrote:
And I am sure the same applies everywhere where regional politicians control the policy.
I have to disagree in the case of the Isle of Man; I’ve been genuinely impressed by how our government has handled it. The question comes up quite often about the restrictions and ‘are we trying to get new permanent restrictions in by the back door’ and the government has ALWAYS stressed – no, they are emergency regulations, we do not legislate like this, and we want to remove the emergency powers as soon as practical. As such, with the exception of tourism (and the package holiday business killed our tourism industry starting in the late 1960s anyway), we are rapidly going back to normal.
They DO want to reopen the borders, but the choice is right now: just reopen them and have to maintain the same kind of social distancing (pubs closed, most shops really awkward to shop at, many non-essential businesses being closed, no curry night on Friday) that the UK has to enable that, or do we want island life to return to normal except without the tourists? I think you’ll find 99% of the population would prefer we keep the infected out and we get to go back to the pub again. We had a rare spot of great weather last night and there were so many people out enjoying the beach – we went to the Foraging Vintners in Port Erin, and it was almost like COVID19 had not happened – there were enough people out you could be forgiven for thinking the TT wasn’t cancelled.
As such I almost 100% support what the Manx government has done and continues to do, even if it does mean I will have to wait until later in the year before I can get my plane in the air again.
From large UK trials, announced today, dexamethasone is the only drug found to make a difference.
Ventilated patients are 35% less likely to die.
Non-ventilated patients on oxygen are 20% less likely to die.
Other patients get no benefit.
More here although not quite same numbers as above.
Peter wrote:
From large UK trials, announced today, dexamethasone is the only drug found to make a difference.
Great news. It was on TV news right now here. Norwegian scientists said it was “interesting” … and said that drug has lots of side effects.
Indeed, so it is just as well they found it works only on those who would otherwise certainly die without medical care.
BTW has anyone here tested positive for antibodies?
Peter wrote:
BTW has anyone here tested positive for antibodies?
How would you go about getting an antibody test? I wasnt sure there was one available?
Id be prepared to pay a couple hundred Euro for a test to know if Ive had it this last 3 months or not.
