Some data from contact tracing
It may mean that temperature checks are quite good at detecting super spreaders.
What is happening now is obviously local hotspots popping up. This time it is controllable without locking down entire countries. Testing, tracing and isolation of individuals will effectively put out these things. We have had some in Norway, and this is likely to increase when borders open in the next few days and weeks.
The development in the USA does not look good though, it seems like it hardly has started there, but in most of Europe (with a couple of notable exceptions) things will be back to “normal” more or less in within a month IMO.
Peter wrote:
I think everybody is hoping it will fizzle out when it gets below a certain level. Might take a while… there are plenty of people still spreading it, evidently effectively.
I suspect what will happen is when the daily deaths fall below about 50 and stay there, the media will lose interest. If the mob topples over the statue of Cecil Rhodes they will lose interest around the 75 level. For that bloodthirsty pirate Lord Nelson in Trafalgar Square, about 150, and we are close to that now, but he’s too high up.
I burst out laughing at this, then realised that it is actually the reality of the situation…
kwlf wrote:
There has been a widely reported increase in the numbers of cases in many parts of the USA in recent days. If you look on a statewide level on Worldometer, some places that were previously relatively spared such as California/Arizona, seem to be seeing many more cases. Arizona is running out of intensive care beds.
As per my posts 32 and 36 above, this is happening concurrent with a vast drop in numbers in east coast urban areas where coronavirus first arrived from Europe. The overall US numbers are trending gradually downward. Brush fires in areas that have not been affected much at all are inevitable – water seeks its own level. Cases in Arizona (concentrated in the Navajo reservation) will I’m sure be transferred to areas like where I live, where the hospitals are very much under capacity and nobody has died of Coronavirus in the last few days. About half the cases in California are in Los Angeles County, a small geographic area, and the numbers recorded are influenced by increased testing.
Also as per my post 36 above, the press reports that “numbers are increasing”, without explaining that they mean cumulative numbers and not the daily rates, or that the numbers rising are local, not state or national level. It is patently obvious they have no interest in presenting the broader more objective picture. Their interest is in creating alarming headlines.
Airborne_Again wrote:
This also shows that closing national borders is completely pointless
You asked for it, and you got it. The whole of Nordic is now open for travelling (and coming back without 10 day quarantine). What they did was to divide the countries in their regions, some 20 regions for Sweden for instance. Only Gotland passed the criteria.
You can read about it here. For Norwegians, the map now look like this:
They divided into quantitative criteria and qualitative criteria. The quantitative criteria:
The qualitative:
So, Sweden is OK for me, if only the contamination situation there was under some control 
(quite literally actually). Why they will not open for Germany etc is beyond my comprehension though.
My antibody test came back today and is negative. Too bad, would’ve been nice if I already had it.
The overall study results will be interesting, but I reckon that almost nobody from my department apart from the two known cases got it.
We are dropping social distancing in the Isle of Man, we have not had any new cases for about 4 weeks.
The pubs will be open soon. Cafes and restaurants can now open.
Don’t plan any trips here, the borders are remaining closed until the infection is under control elsewhere. I’d be surprised if the borders open before September to people from the UK. Which leaves us in the lurch as our LAA inspector is in the UK, and our permit has now run out. I’m taking the downtime as opportunity to do some of the more fiddly maintenance jobs which are a lot nicer to do on a warm summers day (like tomorrow promises to be) rather than freezing cold on a dull winters day.
I would be amazed if any island in “the UK” re-opens before 2025, because when it re-opens the jobsworths will lose their power to control everybody.
And I am sure the same applies everywhere where regional politicians control the policy.
For essential GA flights to Jersey, the 14 day isolation period is being swapped for a testing regime from Monday 15th
Unfortunately Peter’s analysis is harsh but probably fair. There is no virus in the community and just one case in the Hospital. By not allowing some new infections, the authorities might be making the situation worse in a few months if we have Covid19 and seasonal flu.
The strategy was to flatten the curve but the actions being carried out are to try to eliminate it. It won’t end well when the borders finally open and the Economy is destroyed.
Peter wrote:
detecting super spreaders
I love these terms. Are we speaking of asymptomatic indiviuals who while fighting their own infection for a limited time period are infectious or are we talking about Typhoid Mary, someone who is infectious the rest of their lives? If the former then anyone with a common cold or influenza will be called a super spreader. No?
The 2nd wave! The whole point of the lockdown was to not exceed the medical community’s capacity to treat patients. The so called second wave in my opinion will be a non event in places that had less stringent lockdown orders. People were slowly getting infected creating herd immunity in the process. There will be a much larger spike in those totalitarian countries that had extreme lockdown measures. Just an opinion.
