Airborne_Again wrote:
Haven’t you heard? The motive is to cause an economic depression in the west so that China can buy western companies cheaply. At least if you believe in conspiracy theories.
Yeah…as if their economy wouldn’t completely depend on selling us the stuff they make…
MedEwok wrote:
Yeah…as if their economy wouldn’t completely depend on selling us the stuff they make…
Whoever said conspiracy theories have to be consistent? Research into this apparently shows that conspiracy theorists generally believe in several contradictory ideas.
I think this aspect has been done to death. Can we please move on.
We have what we have.
New infections showing a rapid increase in the UK. This is a few days ago:
Yesterday:
The above is from here. Key workers are excluded from the above (bizzarely).
Probably just the lockdown relaxation. The BLM demonstrations would not show up yet, especially as any effect from that would be from the people infecting their parents / work colleagues.
OTOH it could be rubbish data processing 
Peter wrote:
OTOH it could be rubbish data processing
Possible. Is there any data that averages the numbers per week? Then you have less statistical artifacts from delays in report etc.
Der Spiegel uses such trend data that compares the last 7 days with the 7 days before that. They still show a 13% drop in UK new infections. Of course, this will show a new wave later than day to day data, but with greater accuracy for the overall trend.
You can select a 7 day moving average in the UK data above.
This is an interesting analysis (unusual for the BBC to have something nontrivial). The UK had no “patient zero” but over 1300 of them. No doubt the same for almost every other country in Europe.
Peter wrote:
This is an interesting analysis (unusual for the BBC to have something nontrivial). The UK had no “patient zero” but over 1300 of them. No doubt the same for almost every other country in Europe.
Very interesting! Given the scale of international travel, a single “patient zero” was always unlikely imho.
IIRC, the first German patients were directly imported via a company with close ties to China, but these patients were quickly identified and quarantined, so they probably played little role in the mass outbreak.
Peter, I wonder if a graph of posts per day vs time on this thread follow or predict the curve of the virus
Its strange the no person zero thing as my sister seems to have just come across such a thing. She is an occupational therapist at a home for adults with behavioural and other difficulties in the UK Midlands.They have been isolating from the outside world since the beginning of the lockdown. They had already invested in PPE for all staff as some of the residents can get very aggressive. All staff entering the home must wear the PPE at all times and no visitors are allowed. The residents do not go out of the grounds. Yesterday they finally managed to get everybody tested, both staff and residents by a specialist team of nurses who came to the home, fully kitted out in PPE gear. All tests were negative bar one who tested positive. He has not left the home since before the virus was first declared. The only thing he sometimes does is to put the rubbish out and to go to the post box. But other residents and staff members do that too.
How he got it no-one knows. He is now isolated from the other residents but has been in close contact with all of them over the last 2 weeks.
The bizarre situation is that because none of the residents are over 65 they cannot get retested. Even in a few weeks time when they should be able to tell if others have been infected or not.
Incidentally they are still having problems getting masks and hand gel despite what the government says.
This would seem to show the information gaps with leaving the science to epidemiologists and computer models.
I wonder if a graph of posts per day vs time on this thread follow or predict the curve of the virus
I am not sure I have the data in a ready to use form but this is one facet of the server activity – regular daily users
The funny thing is that a lot of people read EuroGA only (or mainly) at work, hence we see a big drop on weekends. Now, most are not going to work so you just get the weekend level all the time.
This is monthly posts over last 12 months, so maybe a bit of a drop but not much
He has not left the home since before the virus was first declared. The only thing he sometimes does is to put the rubbish out and to go to the post box. But other residents and staff members do that too.
How he got it no-one knows.
Probably from a delivery driver or postman.
Here in the UK it has become obvious that the great majority of proven (by test, not imagined) infections are among “critical workers”. These are 1/3 of the workforce. OTOH these have had access to tests for a lot longer than the rest of us normal people, so hard to draw clear conclusions. But it is obvious that a lot of e.g. delivery drivers and shop assistants are infected. It vindicates our home policy of treating every letter and package as infected, and of not going inside shops.
This is disgusting – 5p-10p masks going for £10
gallois wrote:
All tests were negative bar one who tested positive.
That sounds like it is well within the false positive rate of these tests as you would expect to see in the wild. The tables from page 12/13 of this quality control study of German laboratories tells you that they had 97.8% to 98.6% of negative test samples being qualified correctly, which is deemed a “very good success rate”. In other words, 1.4 % to 2.2 % of these tests may come back false positive. If you test one care home with 100 inhabitants, you have a high chance of seeing one positive. With all the panic and quarantine measures and stigma that this entails for the affected individuals, without anyone ever being infected.
Depending on your test infrastructure, this rate may also go up. I think I had posted this video here previously:
