This is an article well worth reading
Very interesting, and well – non-sensationally – written. But in fact it is a mild-to-unpleasant illness for MOST. What makes it pretty unique is that for a few, but way too many, it isn’t. Unlike flu, which gets people who were in poor respiratory health anyway, in 0.1 – 1% of cases this thing turns around and bites in strange ways. To me, getting back to some semblance of normal is about getting that aspect under control. A vaccine is a long way off and nobody knows how effective it will be. But if we can take cases like his (or my friend who came VERY close in a similar way) and say, oh yes, it’s hit you with Plan 3b, we know what to do about that – then we can start to treat like “just another disease”.
read in a paper today that there are many scientists of the opinion that this virus will not go away and we shall need to learn to live with the new reality of social distancing for many years if not forever. Unfortunately, this also means that international travel will be severely limited, particularly if quarantine is imposed on a regular level. IMHO, it would totally kill the passenger airline industry and also restrict GA to only national or very limited international flying.
Heard from people I know in the entertainment industry that many of them are considering to return to their pre-showbiz careers where possible or have to start thinking of learning new trades. Same goes for sportists who take part in paid sports such as soccer e.t.c, which is unlikely to resume anytime soon if at all. If gatherings stay restricted, also many of the sports people will have to work ordinary jobs sooner or later.
IMHO, it would totally kill the passenger airline industry
I took this photo a few minutes ago
Mooney_Driver wrote:
read in a paper today that there are many scientists of the opinion that this virus will not go away and we shall need to learn to live with the new reality of social distancing for many years if not forever. Unfortunately, this also means that international travel will be severely limited, particularly if quarantine is imposed on a regular level. IMHO, it would totally kill the passenger airline industry and also restrict GA to only national or very limited international flying.
At this point, I don’t think the virus will “go away” either, much like Influenza is not going away either despite us having vaccines against that (but very few people are getting it). Warmer temperatures do obviously not eliminate the virus (meaning summer weather, not >70°C used to deliberately inactivate SARS-CoV-2), so the pandemic will continue until a large percentage of the population (~70%) has had it or has been vaccinated.
Remember, the Spanish Flu lasted three years and that virus (H1N1) keeps coming back in mutations…
Mooney_Driver wrote:
read in a paper today that there are many scientists of the opinion that this virus will not go away and we shall need to learn to live with the new reality of social distancing for many years if not forever. Unfortunately, this also means that international travel will be severely limited, particularly if quarantine is imposed on a regular level. IMHO, it would totally kill the passenger airline industry and also restrict GA to only national or very limited international flying.Heard from people I know in the entertainment industry that many of them are considering to return to their pre-showbiz careers where possible or have to start thinking of learning new trades. Same goes for sportists who take part in paid sports such as soccer e.t.c, which is unlikely to resume anytime soon if at all. If gatherings stay restricted, also many of the sports people will have to work ordinary jobs sooner or later.
I am a little more optomistic.
I believe you are correct, but like other viruses in the past, the number of people infected will gradually increase, treatments will improve, albiet perhaps in small increments, and it will become less common, so will not pose a threat to health services, all over a period of probably around two years (maybe a little less).
This, all assuming an effective vaccine isnt produced.
This virus will then become no more important than others, infact probably less important, because even now the mortality is not that high, it is the numbers that are the concern (and I mean in terms of populations, not individiuals). Yes, people will sadly continue to die, as they do of seasonal flu, but the numbers will be a lot fewer.
Social distancing will be forgotten, just as it is with all the other viruses circulating in the population. We may have a generation which, for some years to come, are more aware of public hygiene, and we might see some changes in the way we reduce the risk of surface contamination (I think many have thought for some time all public buildings should have automatic doors), but I suspect that will be the extent of it, as it fades from our memories, and becomes just another pandemic that stopped the beat of the world for a brief period of time.
In some ways it is a testimony to modern medicine and luck, that we have lived through such a long period without a similiar crisis, and easy to forget that disease has plagued the human population since time immorial. However, my biggest hope is we dont enter a period where we see more frequent pandemics and even some of the traditional treatments for bacterial infections becoming less effective as resistance continues to increase. The threat has never gone away, and the fight between us and all the pathogens that find us an attractive host, will continue, probably through periods when we think we have the upper hand, only to be reminded that evolution has stood a far longer test of time than anything in our arsenal. Everything we have done to provide the perfect enviroment for a pathogen to spread throug the whole of the world’s population very quickly definitely has made us less safe, and, I think our ability and willingness to react for more quickly to pandemics and in the same vien, to recognise that transmission from animals to humans has become even more dangerous as a consequence, will define our ability to limit the damage of future pandemics. My second biggest hope, and wish, is that we can come together as a world community and deal with the threat of any country that is unwilling to recognise these threats, and unwilling to subscribe to an international plan to ameliorate the threat.
Mooney_Driver wrote:
need to learn to live with the new reality of social distancing for many years if not forever. Unfortunately, this also means that international travel will be severely limited, particularly if quarantine is imposed on a regular level.
That is not a sensible conclusion. If the virus is everywhere, there is no point in restricting international travel or imposing quarantines.
But you are in good company of politicians who think border controls are a great of showing to your electorate that you are doing something against this danger from outside.
Mooney_Driver wrote:
many scientists of the opinion that this virus will not go away and we shall need to learn to live with the new reality of social distancing for many years if not forever. Unfortunately, this also means that international travel will be severely limited, particularly if quarantine is imposed on a regular level.
The former is just a repeat of history, when ever has a disease of this nature ever just “disappeared” by isolation alone, it is still hard with a vacinne? I say your looking at 5 years to produce a vacinne that is both available and everyone would be happy to take. Perhaps they will rush through something that makes a lot of sense for vulnerable people to take etc. However I am much more positive, today Roche announced a much more effective antibody test, and I would not be surprised if reasonably reliable rapid tests become readily available. Even just a temperature scanner was probably enough to reduce the R rate. At some point we will figure out a way to adapt. Remember when you could just get on a plane without any screening.
Maybe in time each airport will have lab to do there own testing, to add to all the current security infrastructure.
It does nor even need to be a solution that results in an R of 0. The current “lockdown” situation away from travel does not give that, it just needs to be something that is acceptable given the reality of the situation.
Ted wrote:
Maybe in time each airport will have lab to do there own testing, to add to all the current security infrastructure.
That sounds just wonderful. In addition to taking a photo and fingerprints, we could then analyse (and store) everyone’s DNA to find if they are likely to become terrorists.
The UK has an antibody test now.
Of course others had the same product earlier, from Roche, but the UK had to do its own tests 
I agree with Fuji above as to the most likely outcome.
Automatic doors is gonna be a great business!
Speaking seems to create lots of dispersed droplets that can transmit the virus:
https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/05/12/2006874117
Speech droplets generated by asymptomatic carriers of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are increasingly considered to be a likely mode of disease transmission. Highly sensitive laser light scattering observations have revealed that loud speech can emit thousands of oral fluid droplets per second. In a closed, stagnant air environment, they disappear from the window of view with time constants in the range of 8 to 14 min, which corresponds to droplet nuclei of ca. 4 μm diameter, or 12- to 21-μm droplets prior to dehydration. These observations confirm that there is a substantial probability that normal speaking causes airborne virus transmission in confined environments.
This might explain why Italy was particularly affected: 
The distance over which droplets travel laterally from the speaker’s mouth during their downward trajectory is dominated by the total volume and flow velocity of exhaled air (8). The flow velocity varies with phonation (14), while the total volume and droplet count increase with loudness (9).
