Peter wrote:
Reported today: people lose 1-2kg of muscle per day in ICU.
Seems to be on the (very) high side.Typically you would expect a loss of muscle mass of up tp 2% per day for an adult ICU patient – obviously depending on a number of factors. As one typically has less than 40% muscle mass it should be clearly less than 1 kg for a normal man (and less for women).
Obviously there might be a single case of a very well trained bodybuilder …
P.S.: If interested, here’s an open access paper on the topic: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0224565
There is a suggestion that the lab was carrying out entirely legitimate research (or at least they would claim) as to coronavirus modifications that could result in the virus being infectious in other species. This was an accepted line of research it would seem although we now feel the risks outweigh the advantages.
Whether true or not it is reasonable to establish if this research was taking place and perhaps the WHO will be able to do so.
This was part of the report published in the Times. It may be purely speculation but the Times usually research their reports reasonably well so it warrants scrutiny.
I did not suggest their was any weaponising involved.
Clearly the lab was established to research coronaviruses so we need to understand far better exactly what work was done, and whether there was any risks involved. If all was well that would be reassuring.
Mooney_Driver wrote:
We have had more than that, a steadily rising number of new infections per day. Several of the experts who proved worth their council in the first wave are now quite alarmed.
Couple of days later it’s now pretty obvious, that this “2nd wave” in Switzerland was nothing more than 2 days of bad luck which have been dramatized by yellow press. Either there is no such thing as a second wave in Switzerland or this second wave that everyone fears is no more than a ripple in the morning breeze on a perfectly flat lake …
How can there be a second wave when the first one isn’t done yet?
I did not suggest there was any weaponising involved.
Nor has any of us, but whenever someone suggests that the virus might have escaped from a coronavirus research facility which just happened to be in Wuhan or questions why the Chinese communist state tried to cover up evidence of community transmission, our words are twisted into this absurd conspiracy theory. It’s a well-established totalitarian technique to shut people up.
Suppose the CCP virus had first appeared in the vicinity of Porton Down, in England. Would it be so stupid to check whether it had escaped from there? And if it had, might someone there be able to help manage its subsequent rampage?
alioth wrote:
How can there be a second wave when the first one isn’t done yet?
In Switzerland the first is done for a long time…
Jacko wrote:
Nor has any of us, but whenever someone suggests that the virus might have escaped from a coronavirus research facility which just happened to be in Wuhan or questions why the Chinese communist state tried to cover up evidence of community transmission, our words are twisted into this absurd conspiracy theory. It’s a well-established totalitarian technique to shut people up.
The question if the bat has flown from the cave to Wuhan by itself or was collected as a specimen, brought to Wuhan by truck and escaped from that facility is completely irrelevant beyond the fact that we might want to blame someone.
The question whether the virus “escaped” from that facility is therefore only relevant if one assumes that they somehow modified the natural virus there – an assumption for which there exists zero evidence or even indication.
Also there are questions about what actions were taken and when they actually found out there was an issue. The WHO told everyone to keep traveling around based on what they were told by the CCP yet the CCP already knew it was spreading between people and rapidly.
Whilst we can’t go back and change history for the actions of the communist government. We can change our dealings with them and hopefully reduce the risk of it happening again. the IMF seem to be predicting the UK economy shrank 25% in two months which would wipe out the growth of the last 18 years…
Malibuflyer wrote:
The question if the bat has flown from the cave to Wuhan by itself or was collected as a specimen, brought to Wuhan by truck and escaped from that facility is completely irrelevant beyond the fact that we might want to blame someone.The question whether the virus “escaped” from that facility is therefore only relevant if one assumes that they somehow modified the natural virus there – an assumption for which there exists zero evidence or even indication.
I know of no suggestions that bats were physically taken to the research lab. in Wuhan. We do know samples of the Coronaviruses were taken there, because the Chinese have said so. We also know this research laboratory was established to research Coronaviruses. None of this is denied by anyone as far as I am aware.
The question of whether a virus “escaped” is very relevant – modified or not – as it would indicate a breakdown in their security protocols. There are already documents in the public domain that have questioned whether the lab. met the requirements of category 4 containment. Of course it is relevant because it would be a real concern that any lab. any where in the world that was supposed to meet category four standars, did not.
I also know China deny this. They may be right to do so. However, can any country be so sure that they have nothing to learn? Isnt that why it is vital the world authorities unite on ensuring when it comes to these areas of research the brightest minds in the world collectively ensure standars are upheld? Sure, I beleive I am a Sky God, but I bet when I am scrutinised by others they will have a different view, and I will take some lessons from the experience.
As to whether “work” had been done on this or any other Coronavirus, I dont know the Times source that this was an area of interest. I think we can imagine, if nothing else, it would be a justified area of interest.
In all of this, as I said earlier, a fundamental pillar of research of this nature must be a willingness to be open and transparent. Of course there will be States that are not. Of course there will be military interest. Unfortunately an event such as this demonstrates (if a demonstration was needed) that while we may not be able to do much about a virus that mutates naturally, the risk of us interfering in that process in any way is immense and goes way beyong the national interests of any individual county – potentially to an even greater extent than messing with nuclear weapons and materials.
Of course, the world may be unwilling to confront the matter. Of course this may seem directed at China – because at this moment in time it is – but it should be so directed were the circumstances similar, with regards the UK, the USA, or any where else for that matter.
The reality is if we arent unwilling to address this threat, it will happen again, and the consequence may be significantly more severe. In my view this is not a chance that can be taken. In my view, any State that is unwilling to completely co-operate, should become an international pariah. In that way at least the threat is contained.
I hope we all realise just how severe the consequences can now be, just imagine this virus was 10 times more lethal (more than possible) and 3 times as infectious (also, more than possible).
No, China must be called to account, they must be open and transparent with the research they were under taking, and, if the conclusion is they had no hand whatsoever in this virus, and the work they were doing on viruses in general meets international standards then so much the better. If any chinks in their armour come to light, equally lessons can be learnt, and we and they will be the better for the process of international scrutiny.
Of course China will say it is all about the blame game – they have a well established history of using such tactics to divert attention, as do other countries for that matter. We must not be taken in. Unfortunately you cannot do both – you cannot be transparent and willing to learn from your mistakes and, at the very same time, cover your tracks. As pilots, we know that more than any other community, we know we will get blamed when things go wrong, but rise above this we must, otherwise the same accidents keep happening, with the same consequences. Thats why as an international community we do our best to bring to account any State that messes with certain things, but, if we arent very careful, doing our best will not be good enough in the future. The world is a very different place from even 50 years ago as we all know.
So, MALIBUFLYER, I pose you this question, if I have understood your post – what would you do? Would you allow any country to continue with the type of research that it is well documented was taking place without international scrutiny, and, if you would, why do you believe that there will not be some countries where this research takes us down a path that the rest of us will suffer sever consequence?
That’s exactly the “let’s find a reason to blame the Chinese” attitude which is completely disconnected from Covid.
- The question if the virus “escaped” from a Chinese lab is completely irrelevant for the question, if it spreads between people.
- WHO was informed by Chinese officials as early as Dec 31st of the outbreak of an “Pneumonia of unknown cause” and has been involved in the situation ever since. It took WHO until Jan 10t (almost 2 weeks and therefore longer than the incubation period) to start talking about a “novel corona virus”. First case outside China was recorded at Jan 13th – this is completely independent from any Chinese government the point where WHO knew for sure that virus spreads P2P. It, however, took them another more than 2 weeks to declare an international public health emergency (first stage where travel restrictions should be considered).
It is simply fake news that “WHO told everyone to keep traveling around based on what they were told by the CCP” even if Chienes governement had lied to them (for which there is also no evidence).
- “Dealings with the Chinese government” do therefore have nothing to do with Covid. Off_Field wrote:
the IMF seem to be predicting the UK economy shrank 25% in two months which would wipe out the growth of the last 18 years…
10.2% this year according to IMF …
