Just heard of a footballer of 28 who had to have 8 days on oxygen to survive this.
This kind of news needs to get out there because so many young people still think they will be fine.
IMO only the deaths counts by now, the number of infected is merely a result of how many are tested. I made my own graphs to give my engineering head a chance to understand the numbers (without “medical clutter” 
) The basic idea is to see if the development is more like Italy or S Korea. Italy is bad, S Korea is good.
The graph below is deaths. Italy is “taking off”, but both Italy and Korea have much larger populations, so the graph doesn’t necessarily mean all that much.
In the next graph the numbers are divided by the population. But, since the numbers are so small and the smallest unit is 1, this doesn’t (yet) mean all that much either
The next graph shows the “speed”, or the numerical differentiation, second order accuracy. This clearly shows that Italy is on a separate path.
Then the “speed” per million.
I also did “acceleration”, and tried some low pass filtering, log graphs etc. Anyway, all Scandinavian countries are doing well so far. There is nothing in the numbers suggesting “Italy conditions”. But, it could be early still, and probably is.
LeSving wrote:
I made my own graphs to give my engineering head a chance to understand the numbers (without “medical clutter” ) The basic idea is to see if the development is more like Italy or S Korea. Italy is bad, S Korea is good.
Nice work!
Le Sving – if you have the data it would be interesting to add the UK please, as it is being reported we are several weeks behind Italy.
“the number of infected is merely a result of how many are tested”
The numbers for Japan illustrate that very well.
Boyd, O. (21 Mar 2020). Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier? The Japan Times. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2020/03/21/commentary/japan-commentary/japan-still-coronavirus-outlier/#.XniBvcqnxOl
@Qalupalik, yes indeed, someone I know in Japan had very suspicious symptoms for several days and went to a clinic yesterday to get tested. The doctor told her they were not allowed (!) to test her unless she had pneumonia confirmed by x-ray image or equivalent method.
gallois wrote:
After all, we hopefully will have avoided the virus but can we be sure that everyone we meet is also clear? Ormwill we have to practice safe distancing forever?
That is exactly what it looks like until they find a vaccine or they find out what medication reduces the sympthoms to an acceptable level.
Both of the latter can take months if not years.
My workplace is so far clean as far as we know, but that has a lot to do that they shut down the offices REALLY early and sent everyone to home office. Seeing some descriptions by people who have been through it in different severities, herd immunity is something which can only be achieved via vaccination in a humane way.
Ultranomad wrote:
The doctor told her they were not allowed (!) to test her unless she had pneumonia confirmed by x-ray image or equivalent method.
Surprisingly, to accuratly estimate the % of infected you need to do random sampling on both “non pneumonia population” and testing on “pneumonia population” (if testing result in 99% infected then probably you are not testing everybody)
I seem to recall that during the london riots (2011?) news and social media supressed reporting of what was going on. I’ve also noticed some things could be found using duckduckgo but not with google.
I understand that if you mention eric ciaramella on youtube or facebook it gets automatically removed.
I guess it’s just difficult to get information and data that you can usefully use. Testing etc will make a huge difference to reported numbers. I also wonder how many may die related to coronavirus which are put down to something else.
UK press are reporting that an ‘otherwise fit and healthy’ 36 year old nurse is in intensive care.
I guess it depends how you define ‘fit and healthy’. There are a few pictures of her in the press, and while she’s not obese she’s noticeably overweight. Overweight = not so good on the respiratory side of things, no?
