Kids are definately a problem. I see it specifically where a couple of 2 or more children. Each child is involved in different sports and clubs and as a result both parent spend their weekends shuttling the children between the different events/training/outings.
I think one of the problems is that schools and GA in general have significantly different interests (at least where I live).
Schools generally make their money from students training and PPL hire is just a nusiance that they feel they have to provide so that students have something to aim for. To the school, they will make money from you when training but once that’s over, they really have no interest in you anymore. Students turn up, fly for 1 hour, pay for an instructor then leave the aircraft back on the ramp as the next student is walking out to fly it. PPL’s want to take the aircraft for a 1 hour flight, leave it at another airport all day, and then fly it back for 1 hour. So a two hour flight takes up the aircraft all day, and payment is only for the aircraft, not instructor.
GA in general is more interested in pilots flying long term, using airports and facilities that are away from their home base, and so ensure that the infrastructure grows everywhere and not just where training is done.
Part of this problem is that in order to get more students in, schools sell unrealistic pictures of post PPL flying. They try to sell romantic images of taking loved ones on a romantic weekend to Paris, Carcassonne or some sunny island for the weekend, on a whim, without all the hassle of airline travel.
However on qualifying, pilots soon learn that the difference between that division and reality is huge.
1. You have to book the aircraft for such a trip well in advance, unless you’re in a position to purchase and pay all the bills by yourself
2. If renting from a school, they really don’t want to let you take the aircraft away for a weekend.
3. The weather is highly likely to mean that your VFR trip will be cancelled at short notice, scrapping your trip that you were looking forward to and making your loved ones lose interest in further trips.
3A. This means that things like car hire and hotels can only be booked last minute, or you loose payments or you have to pay a much more expensive cancellable rate.
3. The time saving isn’t there. Sure you don’t need to hang around at the airport for 90 minutes before a commerical departure. But you probably need to turn up at the local airport 60 minutes before departure anyway, to preflight the aircraft, get if fuelled, and loaded, engine checks etc. Travel speed is a fraction of the airlines so any gains are quickly lost. Any leg that is much longer than 3-4 hours will probably require refuelling enroute. And then when you arrive, you’ve another set of problems such as organising tie downs, unloading all your gear, covering the aircraft, arranging fuel etc.
4. When you’re ready to leave the destination airport, you’ll realise that you are a) in a small airport in the middle of nowhere that taxi companies don’t know anything about, or b) at a regional airport at a time there is no schedule traffic so no taxis and you’ve to wait on one to arrive.
5. When at your destination, you’ll spend the weekend second guessing the weather and worrying if you’ll get home as planned.
6. Eventually you’re loved ones won’t want the unpredictability, and you’ll realise that you could have avoided all the hassle, unpredictability, delays and worry and flown commerical, stayed in a five star hotel, and all for 50% of the cost.
Those who will stay flying long term are probably those who fly for the love of flying. They enjoy the journey as much if not more than the destination. They aren’t those who were sold flying based on a romantic dream of trips on a whim to exocitic places.
Let’s hope last nights’ amazing launch, and even more amazing recovery will put a bit of engineering aspiration back into the world. There were even young people in the crowd saying they “really wanted to be engineers”. Mr Musk is demonstrating that what you dream of, you can do. For me, flying was very much like that.
Extremely well said.
mh wrote:
That’s the mistake most people make. Flying and family isn’t exclusive.
Call it a mistake, for me so far it is the dire reality. Not only flying, everything has come to a screeching halt following the birth of my daughter. Life 2.0 so to speak, nothing is the same. I am not complaining as it is great fun seeing this little girl grow and spend time with her, but seeing just how much time everything takes and how the simplest chores need to be planned into the few times when you know you can actually do something, I don’t think I’ve had more than maybe half an hour free time since. And that goes for administration and housework and if there is some longer period of maybe an hour or two, both of us are using it to catch up on sleep.
I’ve heard from many of my colleagues who told me the same thing, the first 3 years forget everything and then slowly start rebuilding. We are exactly at half time now. And at our age (55 in my case) it is not as easy to cope with as 25 year olds do…
I was reading elsewhere that there is an increasing demand for flying instructors; that seems counter to decline in private pilot numbers ?
Most instructors, based on instructional hours flown, are training on integrated ATPL or Multi Pilot courses. For modular training you need a PPL so a fair proportion, majority?, of PPL training is to get the first foot in the door of ATPL modular training. My guesstimate is only 10-20% of training is for private pilots.
Bumping this old thread with GA data for Sweden https://www.transportstyrelsen.se/flygtid – decline of flight hours of some 17% across 8 years (2010-2017).
And that is in Sweden which according to reports has a well supported club scene…
A French pilot informs me that France is visibly declining too, despite again having a well supported club scene.
Does anyone have data for Germany?
The big Q is how far can this continue before GA airfields start to close and then the collapse will happen quickly.
Emir wrote:
Bumping this old thread with GA data for Sweden https://www.transportstyrelsen.se/flygtid – decline of flight hours of some 17% across 8 years (2010-2017).
It is more interesting to look at each year in the period 2010-2017. Private flying: 56 882 h – 54 677 h – 48 181 h – 45 770 h – (missing) – 46 694 h – 49 400 h – 46 734 h
This suggests that the situation has stabilised from 2012 on.
These are the figures for my club (including training flights) for the period 2011-2018: 824 h — 867 h — 1016 h — 846 h — 710 h — 921 h — 860 h — 1221 h
I don’t see any reason to worry.
Peter wrote:
Does anyone have data for Germany?
There’s a white paper by a couple associations, AOPA, GBAA, DLR, etc., unfortunately in German, regarding German ‘decentralized aviation’ as they call it.
I put it up here anywy….
wrap up: https://www.gbaa.de/fileadmin/user_upload/Dezentrale_Luftfahrt_in_Deutschland.pdf local copy
full monty: https://www.idrf.de/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Mobilit%C3%A4tsstudie-der-dezentralen-Luftfahrt.pdf local copy
In a nutshell, GA in Germany including business aviation and is actually pretty strong, despite a less than optimal use of the infrastructure and despite them being somewhat under the radar screen. Lots of global market leading and other SMEs who use their own planes for transport, particularly because they’re frequently not close to a larger hub.
Local flight school activities are thriving, people are getting interested, so my personal assessment is German GA is pretty strong, despite lots of idiots trying to denounce it.
