Whilst I am sure that the current economic crisis will deter people from taking up any hobby or leisure activity which had a high cost, I’m not so sure it will affect student pilots more than other activites or more than qualified pilots.
IMO people in general tend to want to do something, to achieve something. They have a goal. To fly solo, or gain a PPL is for many a dream goal. Especially if they are not put off by the many doomsayers both in and outside GA.
But after they have their PPL what is the next goal. Taking friends up, GA family holidays but these goals once achieved can quickly become boring. By the third or forth time the £100 burger run is not particularly something to look forward to for many.
Speaking personally, I need something else to motivate me to go flying these days. I realised that once I had done my first few flights to and from the UK and Corsica and a the other places I wanted to go before taking up flying, no longer motivate me.
In some ways I could say I became the perpetual student, Night rating, taildragger, MEP, SEIR, MEIR, PBN, difference training for various models, ULM, mountain flying. I now seem to have got into a sort of rut. If I have to pull the aircraft out or put it back in the hangar I find myself thinking “can I be bothered”. The cost is perhaps a demotivating factor for local flights these days, but it is not the main demotivatio.If somebody says let’s go flying, I am motivated, “yeh let’s go”. I feel the same about fly ins, vey little motivation unless someone says “why don’t we give it a go”.
This years trip reports on Euroga gave me a bit of motivation. Not so much Dan’s trip, although it did get me fired up and certain parts of it like the Greenland tour of the glaciers could well get me motivated, but I can’t see myself doing the whole Atlantic crossing.
IIRC it was ASWs trip in a WT9 around the distilleries of Scotland and Ireland which has got me most motivated to do something. I’ve just got to get access to a WT9 and persuade my other half (who doesn’t much like flying in small aircraft) that there are some great places to see and nice hotels and restaurants to be enjoyed.
The whiskey doesn’t do it for either of us I’m afraid.😃
From the comments I hear, I am not the only one suffering from the lack of a ga goal these days.🙂
I should mention, I tried aerobatics and decided it wasn’t for me.🙂
Isn’t a big issue for GA decline the vanishing of business and travel related flights?
I do see a lot of activity and growth going on in Business Aviation after the pandemic and I suspect this will grow even further as The Rich launch from The Poor’s planet, but little in GA. I am using my aircraft for a lot of business related travel during weeks time and it gets more and more seldom to meet somebody doing the same. This summer I also met a few more going on vacation on GA thrusters, but rather some mentioned to have some kind of farewell travel activity before selling their aircraft.
The UK is near to a finance disaster. For over 30 years banks have pressured customers to move their savings into investment schemes giving better rates, but not covered by guarantee. A %age went to the company, the money was invested in shopping centres and other things which are now in trouble. Many will lose savings.
Mrs Thatchers plan to increase home ownership was followed by the campaign to persuade people to “release equity” – get into debt again.
People were encouraged to “buy to let” as a safe investment.
Interest rates are rising, raising rent and eviction are now both banned (temporarily) in Scotland. The result should be easy for even politicians to understand.
@Maoraigh the public finances are on a knife edge. Unlike, say Italy, which Great Britain likes to look down on from a fiscal responsibility perspective, Great Britain has a chronic lack of internal savings and really depends on the kindness of strangers. With 9% current account deficit and 100% debt to GDP, and low internal savings, the fiscal consolidation will be much harsher than 2012. Italy has a healthy 7 to 8% internal savings.
The Tories, more by cock up than design, have reduced politics to a reality TV game show. The Parliamentary Labour Party doesn’t really communicate their appreciation of the gravity of the situation, or choose not to. Silvio Berlusconi was the first to synthesise the culture of TV varieté and mainstream politics, and Trump is a crude, more radical version. In theory, trends identified by Gramsci a hundred years ago, the use of popular culture in politics. Gove being fond of quoting Gramsci. The Tories like the sorcerer’s apprentice are also experimenting with new TV game formats for selecting cabinets.
The GBP yield curve is slowly de coupling from G7, and if Boris is selected as leader I would expect yields to start to approach BB implied levels of default.
Is that relevant though? What matters is the correlation between those who actually fly (rather than do a PPL with some one-off bundle of spare cash) and their exposure to the economy.
Different people have different exposures. For example if you don’t have a mortgage (true for a larger % of homeowners than many would believe) then interest rates have little direct effect on you.
Is that relevant though?
Some of us can remember exchange control …
I can too 
But somehow the world carries on. I’ve seen a loss of 50% on a house I owned. The world carries on, not least because the next house you buy you got for half the cost. The only time a property bubble bursting actually affects people is if they are moving downmarket in a big way e.g. Brighton to Liverpool, or to Murcia to spend the rest of your years eating fish and chips and getting p1ssed but then those people are not players in GA anyway.
I never thought money (in the simple way) is a big driver in GA decline. Count the # of 100k cars on the nearest big road.
We’ve done this before many times. I think there are many other factors. Poor social scene is a big one.
People were encouraged to “buy to let” as a safe investment.
So far I’ve seen a 500% property value increase on one rental property and 300% on another, bought later. My combined initial investment was about 4% of current combined value. They’re now paid off and will be providing me with income for the rest of my life. I can’t think of anything much better I could have done with my discretionary income since starting work with zero assets of any kind.
I’ll be flying in my intentionally modest and enjoyable plane, or another, for as long as I am physically able, money is not the main issue. That then puts the onus on me to maintain my health – which in time becomes the greater challenge because by comparison building a sufficient nest egg is actually not that challenging if you act on it over time, and without unwarranted risk aversion.
@Peter, moving downmarket in housing to me would me would mean Florida, and flying would most definitely be involved given that the house would undoubtedly be on an airport where everybody owning and flying there has done the same thing. The problem is that notwithstanding my preference for Florida governance and the ease of buying that hangar house, nothing else I like to do is there in a significant way. No mountains
Rising interest rates affect many other things than mortgages. For instance, borrowing the money to buy or uprate your plane. It could lead to a quick decline in GA aircraft prices.
If you don’t borrow you will be losing more than if you left the £100,000 or so in Gilts or on treasurers or with the current volatility on short term on deposit in a building society.
Do many people in Europe borrow money to buy a plane?
I know many in the US have historically done that. Those people watch the values constantly and get very upset if they move downwards. I used to see this on the (mainly US) Socata owners’ group, where posting something negative about the aircraft would get you into serious hot water.
