Peter wrote:
There is a massive anti-UK sentiment, driven by brexit (one also sees this when trying to buy stuff from the mainland, notably from certain countries; I expect it will die down over the coming years) and anybody who is on that side is “your friend” by default (your enemy is my friend, sort of stuff; usually this works only for a short time, like the WW2 alliances). So of course most mainland European media will support the Scottish independence angle
The Scottish bid for independence with the main goal to rejoin the EU is obviously one thing the EU itself looks at with interest, as even if it is unclear if it would happen in the case of independence, it certainly is a welcome “divide and conquer” factor in the current retaliatory behaviour of the EU against the UK. The latter of course was not only to be expected, but the EU can not really let the Brits get away with Brexit, lest quite a few other countries would get similar ideas.
In the press however, I am not so sure. Obviously they do what press does, which is to pick up issues, amplify them up to distortion and publish in order to sell papers. So, figuratively speaking, one Scotsman in a pub shouting independence a bit too loudly may end up represented as a mass exodus movement, which it isn’t. However, as you say rightly, in situations such as these, Nationalism is a major driver of secession movements and unfortunately, it often will be quite sufficient to lure masses after them. So IF a new referendum was called, I would be very wary of it’s outcome.
The EU will of course play a major role here. They might as well show the Scots a massively attractive carrot pre-independence to induce them to split only to make that carrot much smaller once they do. Not unlike Trump did with the pre-Brexit UK as he was massively pro Brexit to weaken the EU. What happens afterwards is anyone’s guess.
Mooney_Driver wrote:
In the Scottish case, their now primary motive would be for an independent Scotland to reverse Brexit and get back into the EU. You say that is impossible, I wonder why? It would be the major coup for the EU as it would be the ultimate humiliation of rump Britain and snap them up
First of all: The EU does not want to humiliate the UK. So there is actually nothing to win. There is no such thing as an anti UK sentiment in the EU.
But second and more importantly: Accepting a new member in the EU does require an unanimous vote of the current member states. And this includes Spain.
I do se now even remotely realistic scenario in which Spain will agree to a prejudice that a region that has separated from its homeland will have the chance to become independent member of EU.
The day Spain would ratify the membership of Scotland to the EU, they could also sign the Declaration of Independence of Catalonia and most probably even Basque.
Won’t happen!
@Mooney_Driver that is a well-reasoned analysis and I would tend to agree with it.
One interesting part of the Scottish independence movement which is perhaps a little too subtle for the media to address is how one can rationalise the logic of wanting to leave one bloc (the UK) and join another (the EU) without it boiling down to simply not liking the English.
Ultimately if Nicola Sturgeon gets her way then they just swap control & handouts from London for the same from Brussels. Arguably London gives Scotland greater funding and greater autonomy at present than Brussels is likely to offer in the future, unless as you say Brussels decides to use it as a PR piece to humiliate the Brits – but the problem there will be various other smaller/poorer EU states complaining loudly about Scotland getting a good deal.
Malibuflyer wrote:
First of all: The EU does not want to humiliate the UK. So there is actually nothing to win. There is no such thing as an anti UK sentiment in the EU.
They may not wish to humiliate the UK, but they may feel they need to.
Rule 1 for the EU over the next decade or so is that no other member must leave. If that were to happen, particularly another economically-significant one, it would signal the start of a more general break up and the end of the project in its present form.
The best defence against another member leaving is being able to point at a disastrous example of what happens when you leave.
Peter wrote:
Welcome to continental media biasThere is a massive anti-UK sentiment, driven by brexit
Nonsense. Brexit simply doesn’t figure in the continental press, which I read daily(several countries). I’ve also spent almost three months of this year on the continent and there simply isn’t any discussion about Brexit. It’s done and dusted. Move on.
172driver wrote:
Nonsense. Brexit simply doesn’t figure in the continental press, which I read daily(several countries). I’ve also spent almost three months of this year on the continent and there simply isn’t any discussion about Brexit. It’s done and dusted. Move on.
As I wrote a few days ago. It is in the interest of some groups in the UK that there is an “anti-UK” sentiment in the EU. That’s why we’re likety to keep hearing that claim for quite some time.
Historically, one of the most effective ways of having people overlook domestic problems and have them “rally to the flag” is to create a conflict with countrie(s) abroad.
I seem to have hit a raw nerve.
@Peter wrote "Welcome to continental media bias
There is a massive anti-UK sentiment, driven by brexit (one also sees this when trying to buy stuff from the mainland, notably from certain countries; I expect it will die down over the coming years) and anybody who is on that side is “your friend” by default (your enemy is my friend, sort of stuff; usually this works only for a short time, like the WW2 alliances). So of course most mainland European media will support the Scottish independence angle – totally unrealistic as it is, for many reasons (start by googling N Sea oil production over past 30 years, for example)."
It was I response to this that I wrote what I did.
I do not see an anti UK media bias or any other anti UK sentiment. This anti UK sentiment that you often go on about is something amongst other things that you write gives me the perception of you as anti EU.
The subject here was Scottish Independence or not, and I am willing to be educated and have been by both @Maoraigh and @Fenland_Flyer.
I did write that I had no idea whether Independence would be a good or bad thing for Scotland. I did point out that from the media here (and I will clarify that I was talking of the reports in the May elections) it would appear that most people, over 50% I believe support Independence (they voted for the SNP or the Greens) and not one of the Unionist parties. I believed this to be a fact and the Media here reported that correctly. I see no anti UK bias in such reporting. However, others on here have pointed out that the situation is much more nuanced. I have accepted that and have been educated.
Similarly I have no idea whether Brexit will be good or bad for the UK. I do know that it has caused some problems in France but most of these have now been overcome, although Covid is getting in the way of seeing the full picture.
But for the moment Covid restrictions aside as, everything seems to have or is beginning to return to normal.
There is little sentiment here for either UK bashing or supporting Scottish Independence. It is what it is and for the moment has nothing to do with us.
There seems to be (and I get this from the posts in this forum) many who believe that the EU is out to punish countries like Switzerland for not joining the EU or the UK for leaving it.
To me that is nonsense. I have seen very few signs of EU treaty changes that would not have occurred if these countries were members of the EU. But the EU will change. It will evolve to suit the members which remain. If that doesn’t suit countries outside the EU, well so be it. So please get real we in the EU are not going to give up what we have just because some think the EU is punishing them. And yes of course the EU is going to do it’s best to ensure it is better to belong than not. Otherwise there would be no point in an EU in the first place.
Malibuflyer wrote:
I do se now even remotely realistic scenario in which Spain will agree to a prejudice that a region that has separated from its homeland will have the chance to become independent member of EU.
Spain has already said they wouldn’t block an independent Scotland from joining the EU.
I seem to have hit a raw nerve.
NO, you wrote a personal attack. Normally these are deleted.
And a false one, too.
alioth wrote:
Spain has already said they wouldn’t block an independent Scotland from joining the EU.
What they say publicly for the benefit of the EU as a whole, when the issue is not actually on the table, might be different to what they’d do if it actually happened.
If an independent Scotland were allowed to join, Catalonia would declare independence from Spain instantly.
