Following Aeroplus' comments in the chute pull thread, I think the concept of Risk is a very interesting one.
I almost always fly if I have planned a trip (in fact in the past 9months I have a 100% dispatch rate). This is because:
From an IR point of view:
To mitigate risk I do the following:
Two things worry me:
If I am ever uncertain of my position or feeling disorientated or seriously behind the aircraft I will commence a wings level climb immediately.
Interested how others manage risk in flying.
Having in mind the performance capabilities of my plane I don't count that my dispatch rate can be 100% and that doesn't concern me. I fly when I'm sure weather will not be an issue for the aircraft. Light icing is acceptable as well as flying in IMC if I can't overfly it as long as it's not too much turbulent because that can mean long hand flying due to disengaged AP and that's not funny if it lasts few hours.
I'm always prepared to fly to minimum and I always train for that
I carefully choose the alternates and I always depart with fuel enough to reach them and to have reserve (which means more-less full tanks)
I always fly instrument approaches both for training purposes and because ATC tends to give higher priority to IFR flights
Everybody should be worried about TS - I have recent experience landing through embeded CB - not nice at all.
Good points and to be clear I see a dispatch rate as a result not a target. Although to be fair a higher dispatch rate is more convenient.
In the good old days we called that Airmanship!
All good points. As a bonus I usually have a second pilot, although not strictly required it's a company policy.
In recent years there has been a lot of discussion about automation complacency in the commercial world. I would argue that this is just as important a factor for private pilots. Basically, automation, and the requirements for P-RNAV for example, has reduced the actual stick time for pilots, to the point where many can't hand fly an ILS!
One way of staying sharp and on top of the on board systems is to hand fly the departure to a certain altitude/level, and to regularly hand fly approaches.
Agreed re hand flying. Today I had a heading miscompare on PFDs after departure so the a/p would not operate. I was in turbulence, in IMC and London Centre were going crazy with instructions. I knew once in cruise they would resync but you always have to be prepared to hand fly. And flying into EDFE I can seen how an IFR flight could have crashed. Fly the plane is always first!
I fly >340 hours per year. 85% IFR, 15% VFR. Half of the hours in a Cirrus SR22T and the other half in a Piper Archer 3. I share both aircraft with a few other pilots (shared ownership).
Risk management involves for me managing the weather. I have deep respect for mother nature and fear embedded thunderstorms and severe icing scenarios.
I find IFR much easier to plan and fly than planning VFR flights. I have become very fast and efficient in preparing flights. Routine flights (having flown there before) are planned fully including checking the weather, notams, gathering the plates, getting a valid route, choosing alternates, etc. in minutes.
I spend most of my time on the weather. But that means that I start monitoring the general weather picture 2-3 days before the trip (where possible) here and there for a few minutes at a time and zoom in on details the closer to the date/time of flight. By cross referencing several weather sources I quickly get a good overall picture of what to expect. Sometimes it is more complicated and if I doubt I call a good friend (IR instructor that also is very experienced and good in the weather forecasting part and with lots of experience in all kind of weather IFR flying).
There are other issues that seemingly play a role in my decision as well: (a) am I stressed or very busy with work, (b) am I tired or do I feel fine or (c) am I familiar with my destination.
It is mostly due to the FIKI system that I am able to fly about 100% of the time my planned flights. If the weather forecasted is very bad (being the above 2 mentioned scenario's) then I cancel or delay, which I did not have to do once during the last long lasting winter period.
I fly to the minima. I personally see no extra safety beaking off a stabalized approach earlier than at the minima. The synthetic vision and infrared camera in the Cirrus helps me to get a visual image of where to expect the runway. It confirms my own logic taking crosswinds into account.
I have a sheet called "Critical Decision Making" which involves a matrix of risks, their risk level (low/medium/high) and points for each. Then you can add up the points and evaluate the risk involved. I think that I am doing this in my head as I don't do it on paper. I found the document and will scan it and upload a link to it.
I think Aeroplus makes a good point. I have flown into EDDB 20 times. If going there I spend a couple of minutes reviewing the weather at most. Going into EDFE today I spent lots of time reviewing the procedures etc.
Being VFR it was far harder to fly into than an IFR field.
My planning is shown in my trip writeups and it's fun to see how it changes over the 10 years which those writeups cover.
In essence -
No flight in prolonged icing conditions i.e. VMC enroute, which in European IFR means VMC on top, and in VFR (and given the airspace) means flying below the cloud, possibly with a climb up and then back down somewhere safe
OK to climb through a freezing layer if there is warm air below as an escape route, and enough height etc - unless the layer is obviously fairly thin (can see blue sky in the holes)
On the TB20, it is not practically possible to load it fore or aft without exceeding MTOW
I have not yet cancelled a flight due to wind (max demo xwind is 25kt, and we know that is reported from a device on top of a 10m pole so a low wing plane sees far less wind during the flare)
Never do IMC if CBs are forecast (but never do IMC anyway due to 1st point above)
Take the IR images as a definitive guide, which they are if viewed just before the flight (caveat: it is possible to get a high altitude haze which shows as high cloud on them)
On long flights, get tafs/metars for dest and all likely alternates, 1hr before getting there, using a satphone
Plan to land with a min of 20USG in the tanks, or divert
Once on short final, focus on doing a landing, not on going around (yes I know that one is controversial)
Don't fly with anybody who must be at work on Monday (etc) unless they specifically agree to buy an airline ticket to get back if needed
Never stop just for fuel. Pick stops to be nice places for an overnight stay. Admittedly this policy works well with a TB20 and its ~1300nm range; someone with less range will have fewer options
Almost never stop just for Customs, if there is another destination near the desired one which is a proper airport with Customs
Go for an airport with an ILS whenever possible, because it is the safest way to get down (and can be flown hands-off on the autopilot)
When commencing a descent to an approach, check altimeter setting (once on a QNH) against a GPS; if there is a mismatch then the QNH has been set wrong or the altimeter is duff
Use checklists on the ground, definitely pre takeoff and usually post landing, and in flight to set up an ILS
Always be terrain clearance aware (not easy if flying IFR/IMC with panel mounted avionics alone)
Don't cancel IFR unless absolutely unavoidable (everybody is likely to wash their hands of you)
Keep the decisionmaking in the cockpit. ATC can go home after their shift; you have to land first!
I do 100-150hrs/year. IFR despatch rate is maybe 75%. To get above say 90% one needs de-ice, or big balls, and definitely battle-hardened passengers.
Today I had a heading miscompare on PFDs after departure so the a/p would not operate. I was in turbulence, in IMC and London Centre were going crazy with instructions. I knew once in cruise they would resync but you always have to be prepared to hand fly. And flying into EDFE I can seen how an IFR flight could have crashed. Fly the plane is always first!
But you can't usefully fly IFR without a heading... so why get airborne with such a defect?
I have actually seen such a situation, caused by an AHRS heading gyro configured for a specific mounting orientation but having been mounted in the opposite orientation, so the fluxgate stabilisation (of pitch and roll) worked in the opposite direction. The manifestation was that one lost the displayed heading totally (say 100 deg out) during any climb or descent, but it would settle in level flight. I knew what the cause was, but it was interesting how one could fly with it - a handheld GPS still showed the GPS track. The panel mount stuff didn't work usefully in the absence of a valid ARINC429 heading data. All overlays (TCAS, WX500) lost. On a very short test flight it was OK... just.
