OK, how about trade surplus / deficit then? We have a trade defecit with the EU.
I’d much rather deal with trade than sportsball, as you well point out it’s not our forte :)
Just using unchecked Wikipedia data/ and GBP=EUR (doesn’t change order of magnitude):
UK exports GBP274bn into EU – that is roughly 10% of its GDP
EU exports GBP 341bn into UK – that is roughly 2% of its GDP
So in the most extreme worst case of loosing all that export volume, the GDP in EU will just remain flat for a year while for UK it would be a -8% recession!
We are always in the same ballpark: For the UK the treaty is 5-10 times more important than for the EU.
Not saying that I like it or that it’s fair – just illustrating the mindset of negotiation on EU side. It’s always a comfortable situation in negotiations if you know, the other side needs this deal so much more than you do…
Malibuflyer wrote:
For the UK the treaty is 5-10 times more important than for the EU. Not saying that I like it or that it’s fair – just illustrating the mindset of negotiation on EU side. It’s always a comfortable situation in negotiations if you know, the other side needs this deal so much more than you do…
You are forgetting that the Brexit thing isnt about economics, practicality or logic. Its about Politics.
Look back over the history of the whole Brexit saga. From the very beginning the EU attitude was that the UK wouldnt vote to be “worse off” and it showed when Cameron went to the the EU cap in hand saying “we can get a good deal in the EU” and was basicly given the finger… That, and the lack of any EU response to the huge influx of migrants that Summer (including many countries in the EU actively encouraging the migration) were instrumental in the way the UK voted in the referendum.
The EU can’t even agree it’s spending plans going forwards though and how it will deal with the budget shortfall.
I think it’s not paritcularly accurate to band the whole EU together as a homogenous organisation that acts as one group. Germany dominates the eu and does a great deal of exporting to the UK. If you took out the UK export I suspect it would hurt Germany a lot more than the UK. I know Germany’s been teetering on recession for a while and presumably the latest health issues will push it over if not most countries.
It seems much like the French demanding access to our waters to fish in, a lot of bluster for a position but they have no authority to demand such.
Let’s talk round the table and negotiate, yes. Demands for access to our soverign territory, no.
I love having debate to figure out discussions and appreciate you putting the EU point of view over.
I’m very much a small government, free trade sort of person though, with a preference for decision making being as close to individuals as practically possible. So large bodies of unelected lawmakers don’t generally sit well
Off_Field wrote:
Germany dominates the eu and does a great deal of exporting to the UK. If you took out the UK export I suspect it would hurt Germany a lot more than the UK.
Not exactly: German Exports in the UK are about 80bn/yr – that is also about 2.5% of German GDP. (After looking up these numbers I’m a little bit surprised myself that the German exports to UK (in % of GDP) are quite in line with overall EU exports to UK…)
Therefore yes: Loosing that Volume would definitely hurt Germany but not more than general EU. Netherlands might be hit harder.
One thing which has not yet been discussed yet is the structure of these mutual exports: a significant share of the UK export volume to EU is actually crude oil and oil products. These can be extremely easy replaced by other sources.
Off_Field wrote:
I’m very much a small government, free trade sort of person though, with a preference for decision making being as close to individuals as practically possible.
Personally I’m pretty similar – but this unfortunately is not how the EU works in these negotiations. In addition, there is no such thing as free trade as free trade always would imply a total lack of government subsidies and same taxt levels on both sides of the trade…
Malibuflyer wrote:
free trade as free trade always would imply a total lack of government subsidies and same taxt levels on both sides of the trade…
That sounds like a level playing field to me ;)
Sorry chaps I know this is a really nice civilised debate right now but it usually isn’t long before it gets out of hand, which is why this should remain mostly aviation related, please.
When we had brexit stuff in the politics thread, it got well out of hand and quite nasty at times. Admittedly the trouble was generated by a tiny % of people (isn’t it always?) but they tend to be quite clever in the way they game the rules.
The objective in the past always seemed to be fairly transparent: start a good fight, and get as many people as possible to leave EuroGA and go back to their domestic (unmoderated i.e. “uncensored”) forums 
Yes there will be a shortfall to the EU budget starting next year. The net shortfall if you take the average over the last 5 years is around £6 billion per annum. This takes into account rebate, plus £2.8 billion to British farmers and a further £2billion to deprived areas such as Cornwall, Wales and the North East of England.
The EU is debating how the shortfall is going to be made up eg some countries paying more, others receiving less and of course everyone is fighting their corner.
All of this is bound to be reflected in the Council of Europe as they decide on the mandate for Michel Barnier to negotiate on.
With regards fishing, the UK’s attitude to taking back its waters is political, not economic. It isn’t just France who will take a hard line. Denmark are going to be a much stronger voice for access to British waters. For over 600 years Danish fleets have been fishing for herring in the waters that now Britain want to take back. Denmark has a massive appetite for herring so it not only buys the herring from its own fleet but most of that landed by the Scottish fleet.
The attitude of the Danes is that if access to these waters is denied their fleet, they will have to look elsewhere. Scottish fishermen will be able to catch more herring which nobody wants to buy, because the Danes are looking elsewhere,so the UK will have to develop a taste for herring.
It is factors like these that Michel Barnier will have to take into account. He takes a lot of criticism from the UK who don’t seem to understand that like an actors or writers agent, he is just doing the bidding of his clients, ie 27 countries, a European Parliament and several treaties. I don’t think he gets the 10 percent though.
We are going to have to wait and see what the UK are prepared to give up in order to get what they want. At the moment the UK and EU seem to be very far apart and according to the UK government progress has to be made by June, otherwise they are going to walk away. For Michel Barnier to move further towards the UK position will need the agreement of all those in the Council of Europe and many of the leaders represent federal states and they too will be feeding in their thoughts. Remember the Canada deal nearly foundered due to the Walloons.Can this be done by June? I am not optimistic especially as coronavirus is taking up nearly all political bandwidth at the moment and perhaps for months to come.
IMHO both sides might as well walk away now as it seems the 2 sides are wasting their time. If we are going WTO, an Australia type arrangement, or whatever we might as well get there sooner rather than later.
Airborne_Again wrote:
Please explain how the introduction of a glider towing rating results in clubs scrapping Pawnees
Because to get a towing rating you need dual instruction, which is difficult in a single seater?
Gents,Ladies…my question is simple,pls advise….will a current holder of a UK CAA issued EASA ppl be able/ allowed to fly an EU registered aircraft after the 1/1/2021 in EU airspace.?
Thanks
