LeSving wrote:
Men at 50+ is what this virus likes to kill
The very renowned coroner from Hamburg has already autopsied many corpses which were infected by the SARS CoV2-virus. He found that each of the deceased had previous illnesses, e.g. lung sufferers (COPD), smokers, diabetics and cancer patients.
He therefore concludes that the measures taken are exaggerated. Article from the German newspaper Welt
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Peter wrote:
and going to work normally.
I go to work normally, and have done so the whole time. After Easter the schools will open again here. Funny thing. Nobody knows if closing the schools have had any effect, the experts are pointing in all directions. Here in Norway we know that the sum of all measures has stopped the spread, but we don’t know exactly which. It will be interesting to see what will happen when they open.
The number of hospitalized persons is falling like a rock. It started exponentially, then flattened out 2 weeks after restriction, and is now falling. We kind of have won the first battle, but the war has just started. I see it as very likely I will catch the virus at some point. Wide spread vaccine could be 2-3 years into the future, and there is no certainty it will work. Life must go on in the mean time. The virus is not going away. It is like it is engineered to stay around globally and start fires here and there.
If take that number for whatever it’s worth. I have about 1% chance of dying from this within the next, say 2 years. Then what? Would the Gods be pleased if I die from this? Would I get a ticket to Valhalla? (no need to take it literally, I think you know what I mean 
) The answer to that is “no”. To let myself die from this virus, will send me straight to hell. To isolate myself completely from the world is impossible, and I don’t think the Gods would be very pleased with that kind of passive solution either, straight to hell. The only thing I can do to please the Gods, is to fight “evil with evil”. But how? Not sure yet, but it must involve something with a risk larger than that 1%.
Kids are having these “Corona parties” around here It makes the health authorities go bananas, but I mean, kids are kids. What they are telling us with their parties is that it’s not enough to simply stay alive, we have to live as well. The point is: Thor and Odin couldn’t be more pleased
And no, I’m not going insane
Peter wrote:
Risk calculator
This might give a little bit more perspective against those numbers, i.e. how likely you might die this year, assuming you don’t get covid-19…
Peter wrote:
I live in the middle of nowhere, my almost entire exposure to potential virus carriers in past few weeks has been my medical (which I judged to be very high, for obvious reasons) and I work alone at the office (one of the measures taken) where I am only in the afternoons. Outdoors, I am far away from anybody else (up on the hills). I walked for an hour this evening and would have needed binoculars to see the nearest person
It is ironic that as we live in the countryside, the only close contact I and my GF have had other than each other, in the last 3 weeks, has been with the Gendarmes who have stopped us on the way to and from virtually deserted supermarkets for a weekly shop (the shop workers were behind a screen)…
I don’t think the questions are anywhere near enough detailed.
This calculator is as precise as any other Facebook quiz in other words is total BS.
Le Sving – very well written. I think that is probably the reality. In other words most people will eventually catch the virus unless they become a Trapist monk for a very long time. You probably dont want to catch it at any time the health services are unable to cope, but unfortunately, other than then, the outcome will probably be the same – in other words most people will be ok, a small percentage will not.
The only reason it seems to me that will not prove true is 1. if the virus dies out, (as a consequence of herd immunity, or other reasons), or 2. more effective treartments are fouund.
As I said earlier I am still intrigued what is happening in China. They are way ahead of everyone else in the World in terms of how long the virus has been active and either they are massaging the fugures beyond belief or the virus is abating (contrary to what other people seem to think should be happening). Just maybe there is some evidence that it will abate quite quickly or herd immunity is setting in more quickly that we dare hope. I struggle to see how it can be herd immunity but maybe, just maybe, far more people are infected that we realise, or perhaps (as was origianlly predicted) we have yet to see a second and third wave.
In the alternative I guess as experiece grows we probably are going to get better at managing the worst hit people in terms of medical care and it would seem likely there may be some drugs which will help (perhaps not signficantly, but will help the management of those really ill).
I think on balance the Government in the UK is probably now correct to see how things map out over the immediate coming weeks. I hope that those that can really get on grip on what is happening in China. It seems to me this is fundamental to the population gross of the virus, because they are many weeks ahead of everyone else so we need to know beyond any doubt how the virus is progressing there.
I therefore come back to my earlier point that being able to trust the data from China would seem to me to be vital. WHO must be in a posiiton to put in independent health inspectors and China should be isolated from the rest of the World if they do not agree, no if, no buts.
It appears that in South Korea 51 people who had supposedly recovered have tested positive again. Link to nypost article . I guess we just need more information and data.
Off_Field – it makes you wonder whether the same defective tests kits the Chinese have sold us, are the same ones they have been using. 1 in 5 that works also seems about right for the kits, BUT it doesnt seem to negate the fact that there maybe some evidence you can have an outbreak of the virus in the same person more than once. It seems to me as with any disease, but perhaps even more so with this, there is no definitive course it will take – we can say that in the vast majority of patients its course will follow a predictable line, but when some many people are infected, there will, by definition appear to be a hgiher frequency of exceptions to the rules where it behaves differently – presumably this may also be down to individuals having a variety of other conditions that complicate the course of the disease and provide there own unique set of circumstances.
It appears that in South Korea 51 people who had supposedly recovered have tested positive again. Link to nypost article . I guess we just need more information and data.
This does seem to happen but it’s not clear if
Statistically one is much more likely to get a common flu than corona, so if you got tested, and there was any significant % of defective tests, that could easily account for it.
MedEwok wrote:
I still read the Guardian but am well aware how left-leaning and biased they are.
I do too, and was always very conscious of their strong left bias in the comment pieces but felt it was tempered by the quality of the journalism in the more factual pieces compared to the other UK papers.
In the last few years however, the quality of their journalism has gone massively downhill and particularly during the Covid-19 pandemic they have written some awful stuff. Just yesterday they did a horribly sensationalist piece about how ‘Raab doesn’t have the authority to make key decisions’ while the PM is in hospital. This was after Raab gave straightforward and logical answers (“collective cabinet responsibility continues, I’m deputising for the PM”) to some dumb questions from Laura Kuenssberg at the daily briefing. They were literally making stuff up to fill an alarmist article. A follow-on article to that, written by The Guardian’s deputy political editor, raised the issue of whether Raab now had ‘the nuclear codes’, ignorant of the fact that unlike the Americans we have no such thing.
