the question is how long does this have to be in force.
The main answer to that according to what I can see is: The stricter the lockdown, the shorter. E.g. there is talk of a “circuit breaker” lockdown of 2 -3 weeks, that is a lot different than whole semesters. Also, as a consequence of the first homeschooling lockdown is that experience from there could now be implemented. At the time, nobody really had experience with this, that has changed now. There are better plattforms to do it with and now, as opposed to spring, they are in place.
Yes, the complaint that school goals could only marginally be achieved were heard here too, but I think this also has to do with the fact that schools were not prepared, see above. I could see this also from our workplace: At first online meetings and trainings were to say the least chaotic, now the infrastructure is in place. We work with MS Teams here, which is also used by schools. The advantage is, there is a good amount of control possible with it. So students can not simply start the session and disappear, it can be checked if they are present and participating.
30% is about what I heard here too. It was just before our time (our kid started kindergarten in August) but we took her out of childcare. There, they also offered a small group care and had about 30% of the normal. The way I understand it, care in schools were organize alongside the online learning for the home-kids, meaning those kids simply sat in front of their computers/tabletts at school and were supervised by their regular teachers plus some supernumary staff. This should be doable again now. Kindergarten is different obviously, but there at least here, there are usually 2-3 teachers present anyhow, so it was not a big issue once organized.
The problem is that a “total” lockdown is impossible, because of all the essential workers having to still work, etc.
If you look at the curve of the 1st wave, you see the decline was long and slow – over a few months. Nothing will be achieved in a couple of weeks.
Just heard of a study from Spain, where a different strain (not different enough for vaccine issues, but one which makes tracking possible) is predominant. One article is here. Just listened to a radio interview with one of the researchers. Brits and Germans on holidays in Spain, apparently, and consequently little of it in France.
@Mooney:
I envy your optimism but what I see here is that unfortunately schools are really not much better prepared than in April. Plus I doubt that doing hybrid teaching (with some people online and 30% in the room) does work (as hybrid business matings are also much more difficult than full physical or full virtual).
And yes: Kindergarten is much simpler as there is no such thing as “tele-kindergardening” so the “teachers” there can 100% work with the 30% of kids that need physical supervision.
To be vary open: I don’t know a good solution either – but for the time being at least in Germany I believe that keeping schools open is the less bad out of two bad options…
Airborne_Again wrote:
The tug pilot couldn’t release the tow line?
Some types of tug upsets happen so fast, by the time you reach for the release you’re already pointing at the ground.
See “Vertical Tug Upsets” here: https://members.gliding.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2015/05/Formatted-Final-online.pdf
(I believe the glider involved had a compromise hook).
Peter wrote:
If you look at the curve of the 1st wave, you see the decline was long and slow – over a few months. Nothing will be achieved in a couple of weeks.
and dont entirely follow the logic.
the incubation period is at most 2 weeks. In 3 weeks the vast majority of cases should have revealed themselves, and the people concerned isolated, with a long tail, as some recover very slowly after hospilisation. Essenetial working and other activities will provide a mechanism for further infections, but if the lockdown is strict then surely the number of new infections will fall dramatically, with most occurring in bubbles and in theory becoming part of a bubble of isolation within the same family or group.
It clearly will not eliminate the infection, but it seems to me it will reduce the number of infections substantially in the population – in other words all the talk of a circuit breaker or a reset of the clock.
If only we really knew what the infection rate was at the beginning of a lockdown, and at the end, but I guess we would have a far better shot at this data now, and maybe there is already data available from elsewhere which would enable the length of lockdowns to be fine tuned.
I am guessing the idea is that at each tier the R rate goes down in increments as the infection pathways are reduced so from T3 to a more severe lockdown you see another incremental step as infections in work places, resteraunts, etc are reduced a step further.
Assuming T3 has some effect, a more severe lockdown is seeking to speed up the reduction in the R rate and so should be even more effective.
I think it is also possible that a complete lockdown is more effective than T3 relatively speaking because more people are likely to behave themselves for variouus reasons.
Mooney_Driver wrote:
Close the schools for normal operation, do home schooling via remote access. Offer care within the school buildings for those kids who can not stay at home. This worked quite well in spring. As there were significantly fewer kids and they could be kept in small groups of 3 to 5 per room with the necessary equipment to attend the remote schooling. Kindergarten was organized similarily, small groups, always the same kids together for those who could not stay home.
Why don’t you comment on the Swedish experience of having schools open?
Can you point to studies that show that schools contribute to the spread of the disease?
Airborne_Again wrote:
Why don’t you comment on the Swedish experience of having schools open?
Because I know next to nothing about it. Sweden appears to have taken a different approach but did it really go better? I recall that a few weeks ago, Sweden was questioning itself massively as also they had an increase.
Up to about a month ago, the criteria for quarantine was around 60 new infections/100k People/14 days, currently, Sweden has 150. That is low by todays standards, in comparison, Switzerland has 780, Germany 168, Austria 367, France 681. So in that term, Sweden is about where Germany is. Germany however is now locking down of sorts.
Mooney_Driver wrote:
Because I know next to nothing about it. Sweden appears to have taken a different approach but did it really go better? I recall that a few weeks ago, Sweden was questioning itself massively as also they had an increase.
This is not a question about the Swedish approach in general, but about the specific decision to keep schools and kindergartens open also during the “first wave” this spring. As I said, Swedish statistics show that teachers and other school staff have not contracted Covid-19 in any greater extent than other professions have. This contradicts any claims that children are a driver for the spread of the disease.
So when you say that you don’t understand why schools and kindergartens are kept open, this is the reason. Having schools and kindergartens open do not contribute (noticeably) to the spread of the disease and having schools and kindergartens closed have serious social and economic implications.
Of course schools and kindergartens have to operate a strict hygienic regime and also not accept children who appear to have any symptoms of respiratory illness.
as also they had an increase.
It’s increasing everywhere. It’s just the name of the game. Take for instance the Czech Republic. The “first wave” was dodged rather elegantly. Everyone wore masks there. Look at them now. Ballistic, but still wearing masks, and have done that the while time. Go figure 
When looking at the bigger picture, it is mostly random IMO. Small variations make large differences. Timing also seems to be of importance.
1 in 37 in Notts and some other places in the north. Full-time partying before the next level comes in. Politicians up there demanding that the govt delivers guarantees on when this will end.
1 in 200 in much of the south.
Now opposition politicians are calling for a national lockdown because it will achieve better compliance due to solidarity!
It does make one lose faith in human nature. Well, IQ has never been a requirement to get into politics, especially local politics, but clearly it applies to the BBC also.
