LFHNflightstudent wrote:
Between 65 and 60 percent of the Russian population, erroneously (still) hold the view this is justified because of the genocide committed by the Nazi regime in Ukraine. The Russian propaganda machine enforces this message very effectively every single day.
I believe these numbers do not reflect reality because they are close to the data of the official polls that are known to be heavily manipulated. Attempts to perform independent polls gave numbers around 50%. And even this number is not a correct indicator of what people really think. The problem with making polls in a totalitarian country is that many people are scared to tell the interviewer what they really think. They rather say what they believe is “the right answer”.
Also, the most significant share of people supporting the war (and are generally affected by the state propaganda) is among uneducated, low-income/social status people. Also, among older generations. Most of such people never or rarely travel abroad and don’t have the skills that could allow them to emigrate to another country. As for the Russians who live abroad, I believe a few percent of them, as a maximum, support the war and Putin.
Discrimination based on citizenship is a slippery slope, and unfortunately, Putin has (or had) many supporters among citizens of western countries. We can start with numerous politicians such as former chancellor of Germany Gerhard Schröder. I can remember numerous occasions when I spoke to some people (Europeans) that expressed their sympathy to Putin (for being a “strong leader” or “doing the right things”), and I had to convince them that it was a wrong impression, and he was a crook and gangster.
LFHNflightstudent wrote:
I’m sorry but I fundamentally disagree with the statement that sanctions are about punishment. Sanctions are there to drive change and that ONLY works if it is bringing a level of discomfort that pushes people to change their habits. If people who have left Russia all start complaining to their relative still in Russia about how they are being ’’treated’’ because of this war at least the message will hit. The alternative is all out war…
No, they get envy from people who are still in Russia “But you are out of here!” or “You see, you are still fu$%ed, even if you left and don’t support the russian policies” and also makes others believe that the west hates people that once lived in Russia, re-affirming the message of the Kremlin PR campaign.
And yes, sanctions are about punishment, otherwise, what is the point?
If you make people suffer based on some criteria, you punished them, even those that have left Russia because they fear for their lives and got no way of surrendering that citizenship.
LFHNflightstudent wrote:
I’m sorry but I fundamentally disagree with the statement that sanctions are about punishment. Sanctions are there to drive change and that ONLY works if it is bringing a level of discomfort that pushes people to change their habits. If people who have left Russia all start complaining to their relative still in Russia about how they are being ’’treated’’ because of this war at least the message will hit. The alternative is all out war…
This can rather act in the opposite direction, convincing the people affected by the propaganda, that the West dislikes Russia and Russians, does bad things to them, and they should fight to protect them.
arj1 wrote:
I always thought that “chartering” the plane means you have a contract with an AoC so they provide an A to B transportation.
If you hire the plane, then it is renting.
Agree
LFHNflightstudent wrote:
I don’t think it is about punishing at all, I just don’t think collateral damage can be avoided for the sanctions to be effective. The alternative, is worse…
Nonsense. It’s more a matter how “nationalistic” you are. Children are obviously not in any position to take a stand. All they know is they love their mom and dad no matter what. Sanctions work, to the extent they work at all, because it makes it difficult for the regime to run the country. Often they have the opposite effect on the citizens. The people have to chose between two evils. The regime who they may disagree more or less with, but still are fellow countrymen, or the foreigners who makes life difficult for them personally.
IMO the sanctions have gotten out of control. Private person (hotel owners etc) “sanctions” Russians simply because they are Russian. These aren’t sanctions, these are knee jerk reactions and signaling. What exactly is the signal? That you are a “bad person” simply because you are Russian ? Pure fascism IMO. Also fuel prices have run amok. How is this going to help the Ukraine? The only thing that will help Ukraine is:
Right now Putin is confiscating western companies like McDonald and so on. Placing everything under “state administration” because they aren’t doing their business according to contracts. Putin burger next 
We can only hope that the oil and gas sanctions are so devastating they will ruin the Russian economy. But then what? It also ruins the western economy. The net increase in money spent on defense will most likely go down because GDP is going down. Russia will eventually take Ukraine unless the west actually do something. And yes, Putin is sole responsible. The west is still responsible for not intervening.
LFHNflightstudent wrote:
That’s the Russian peoples job, it’s their dictator.
Just to give some impression of what it means for Russian people to do this job:
Russia has been for 200 years under changing regimes without freedom of speech. The FSB apparatus is just so intertwined into it all, it’s gonna take decades to unwind if they start today – which they don’t. P and friends are hiding immense funds (est. 160-200bnUSD) in bazillions of global special purpose vehicles.
The only reason it blew up now is because P got greedy and went for Ukraine, which is one of the richest areas in the world, full of iron and metallic ores, and huge amounts of agrigultural products being exported all over the world. I can post the list here, it’s gone viral recently. New leverage to blackmail Europe, and more funds for the offshore vehicles. That’s the driver of it all. Isn’t it just lovely.
The best thing the ordinary Russians can do now is to get out on the streets by the hundreds of thousands. They cannot jail 140m people. I know this is difficult and it won’t probably happen. But all those nice and decent Russians outside Russia, who I know love their country, can do lots of stuff.
Instead of complaining about not being able to rent airplanes anymore – instead of complaining about EU or US aviation authorities doing that, why don’t you take your twitter, facebook, instagram and tiktok account and do your part in contradicting all thes f*ing bloody lies and fake news originating from Russian trolls these days, including that stooge Lawrow. Or you go to the Polish Ukrainian border and help the refugees there. That would have an impact. You can make a difference.
Valentin wrote:
Just to give some impression of what it means for Russian people to do this job:
This is just awful. They know its their only way to maintain control, which they know they are losing. Right now.
Here is the facebook address of Vladimir Osechkin. Have a look at the letters from an FSB source he posts there (the first one was in global media couple days ago. non- Russian speakers can translate it via deepL or facebook translation function.
What Russia needs now is a proper armed uprising. Surely there are enough people with guns to make a difference?
EuroFlyer wrote:
The best thing the ordinary Russians can do now is to get out on the streets by the hundreds of thousands. They cannot jail 140m people. I know this is difficult and it won’t probably happen. But all those nice and decent Russians outside Russia, who I know love their country, can do lots of stuff.
You confuse people inside Russia with people outside Russia.
EuroFlyer wrote:
But all those nice and decent Russians outside Russia, who I know love their country, can do lots of stuff.
Who told you they all love Russia? Some of them just couldn’t get rid of Russian passport in time for one reason or the other.
EuroFlyer wrote:
Instead of complaining about not being able to rent airplanes anymore – instead of complaining about EU or US aviation authorities doing that, why don’t you take your twitter, facebook, instagram and tiktok account and do your part in contradicting all thes f*ing bloody lies and fake news originating from Russian trolls these days, including that stooge Lawrow.
Well, some of them already do that, but “no flying” is not the only of discrimination – there are other things like making a child in school to stand and say things that teacher wants to hear.
And with regards to flying – how else to stay sane where one’s relatives on both sides are affected?
dutch_flyer wrote:
What Russia needs now is a proper armed uprising. Surely there are enough people with guns to make a difference?
@dutch_flyer, you REALLY DON’T WANT THIS – you never know who gets their hands on WMDs in Russia in an armed uprising.
There is exactly zero chance of people in Russia making a revolt and changing the regime in the nearest months. No matter what happens. Under any circumstances, Putin has enough resources to suppress any protests, and most of the economic consequences that affect ordinary people are delayed. That’s just how the economy works, and nothing can change that. So relying on that for stopping the war is a very bad strategy. I can’t even think how many people in Ukraine Putin can kill in this timeframe.
So I can see only 3 possibilities how the war can stop:
1. The West/NATO interfere more decisively and show the force to Putin. I believe it’s the only language he understands.
2. A group of people close to Putin manages to kill/arrest him and take the power.
3. Putin decides to stop at some position and make a deal with Ukraine/NATO.
3. will be 4. Putin makes a deal with Ukraine – LNR/DNR and Krim remain to be Russian, current government remains in power and Ukraine agrees to stay neutral, and then Putin and FSB trolls and fake agents start to destabilize the country from within. Nothing will change. Realistic and most likely outcome.
1. won’t happen because current Nato agenda is not up to the situation right now.
2. is also possible but nobody really knows who is running the country right now. There are too many groups trying to cope with the complete chaos apparently. Anything can happen. Read the FSB letters.
