Mooney_Driver wrote:
Poland providing fighters to Ukraine let alone letting them operate from Poland would mean WW3.
@Mooney_Driver: WW3 has already begun.
Not only because of the atrocities the Russians are currently committing, but because of the consequences for grain and energy supply over the next months / years. This is going to get ugly on a much wider scale than what we are seeing right now. European energy supplies cannot be re-jigged quickly enough, grain supply to much of the world probably even less so. This war may well spark a whole load of regional conflicts with a high probability of merging into a global conflagration.
The only way to stop this is to decapitate Russia and thus the war. Alas, I cannot see that happening.
PS: My bold in your quote
I am dubious about ALL media stories about this war. Apart from the fact that Russia has attacked Ukraine.
I think “Cutting off your nose to spite your face” describes the West response. Not WW3 hopefully, but massive supply and economic crisis developing, now likely not stopable.
I know a guy with a Russian wife, kids, a PPL, Permit aircraft, and a farm strip. If he takes her for a flight, I understand he’ll be breaking the law.
Social media is playing.a huge part in both Ukraine and Russia. There is a group collecting photos and videos being posted on social media and using.Google Earth and algorithms to confirm the validity of these photos and.videos and verify if the story being.told is true.
It means that the authorities are losing control of the narrative. Russian troops are now targeting the media, because they think they are responsible. A Sky news team have been attacked.
172driver wrote:
WW3 has already begun.
On the economic side certainly. What I was referring to would be WW3 as in total nuclear confrontation. And I just can hope that we won’t see that.
172driver wrote:
This war may well spark a whole load of regional conflicts with a high probability of merging into a global conflagration.
That is my concern as well. China may well try to use this to bring Taiwan “heim ins Reich” while everyone is busy with Russia. Or maybe they learnt a bit of this and won’t do it because they can see what economic trouble Russia has gotten into.
172driver wrote:
The only way to stop this is to decapitate Russia and thus the war.
Not even sure whether that would work now. I guess the most important thing would be to bring the Russian populaton up to speed with what is going on here. Another might be to find someone outside both NATO and particularly the US to come forward as a negotiator neither side can ignore and who could profit from that role. Again the Chinese might be a variant here.
Maoraigh wrote:
I know a guy with a Russian wife, kids, a PPL, Permit aircraft, and a farm strip. If he takes her for a flight, I understand he’ll be breaking the law.
This is one problem which I think has not really been thought through when formulating the sanctions. There are millions of Russians outside Russia who left because of Putin. They certainly are not for him. This includes several oligarchs too. The general shout is though to attack ALL holders of a russian passport, no matter how close they are to Putin or if they are his enemy in fact. I personally regard this as a huge mistake. Russians who have left because of this regime and who are obviously not entangled with it and oppose it, but keep their passports for simple reasons such as keeping their properties or visiting family should not be singled out but rather taken on board to fight the regime. Anything else would be a human rights violation.
Walk down a street and three will be so many windows from apartment blocks that all it takes is one AK47 from one of the hundred of apartments along the street, to take him out.
The ubiquitous AK47 is far from the ideal tool for this. I don’t mean to denigrate it, it’s cheap, great fun for plinking and making noise at weddings and practically indestructible. However, while OK for social work it is pretty ineffectual beyond a few hundred yards. In rifle-shooting terms, that’s akin to pissing on your own boots.
My best estimate, based on my company’s sales to Ukraine (which EU member states have tried in vain to frustrate), is that there are at least 100,000 decent bolt action “hunting” rifles in Ukrainian private hands. Of these, I estimate that about 20% meet or exceed the long-range accuracy and ballistics of the classic USMC M40A1 sniper rifle and are equipped with modern hunting rifle silencers (which effectively conceal the shooter’s location).
Thus armed, a populace may be difficult to subjugate.
172driver wrote:
@Mooney_Driver: WW3 has already begun.
I think that’s hyperbole. If you had said “Cold War II has already begun”, I might agree with you.
The ubiquitous AK47 is far from the ideal tool for this
I know a guy in the US who has a big collection of guns and he says you need to be built like a gorilla to hit anything with one, apart from the first shot 
I think that’s hyperbole
Yes; too many of these.
Interestingly, I see most/all other GA sites disallow discussion of this topic, most notably certain near the “middle” of Europe Perhaps it is just too toxic for some countries.
The Ukranians are achieving amazing stuff. The appear to be prevailing now; in the air too, and with enough air defences (partly donated and partly captured). I reckon the reason they have not blown up that long line of tanks is because they are useful – stocked up with ammo to the roof, no doubt, and with empty tanks because the 60 bowsers got blown up. What are the crews doing, 2 weeks later? Camping in the woods I guess. Unfortunately, no way to stop shelling and missile/rocket attacks onto cities.
How Putin is going to reverse out of this mess, I have no idea.
Peter wrote:
I know a guy in the US who has a big collection of guns and he says you need to be built like a gorilla to hit anything with one, apart from the first shot
I’ve used the AK-47 – admittedly it was in a rifle range, not exactly the heat of combat (and it was limited to a single round per squeeze of the trigger – even in Texas, where this was, it wasn’t legal to have a fully automatic one). I didn’t find it that bad, it was certainly easier to use than my friend’s AR-15 clone. I would have thought in the context of close quarters urban warfare, the AK-47 would be a more useful rifle than a bolt action (well, except for those with a nice perch somewhere high up and a clear view of the streets below…)
Controllability on full-auto is an issue for all assault rifles, it isn’t unique to the AK. You reduce it by having a less powerful cartridge and/or a heavier rifle to absorb the recoil.
If you want to actually hit something at a non-trivial range then you use semi-auto. Full auto is for suppression fire – making the other lot keep their heads down – and then a bit of ‘spread’ is actually desireable.
The AK series are inherently less accurate than equivalent western weapons, but infantry rarely engage at a range where that difference will matter – especially in an urban conflict with variable levels of training and proficiency.
The real strength of the AK is its ability to deal with rough handling, dirty environments and a lack of cleaning. Western weapons are more sensitive.
I am impressed how much expertise EuroGA pilots know about arms and semi-automatic rifles
I think we should organise a “hunting fly-in” !
