Good to see how quickly we’ve moved from epidemiology experts to military experts here… hope everyone has updated their LinkedIn profiles with their new titles. Go flying people…
LeSving wrote:
The Ukrainian armed forces in the correct sense of the word exist no more.
What is your source? I’ve seen surprisingly little in the media about the strength and losses of the Ukrainian armed forces.
All that has been said is that Ukraine have lost something around 400 regular army and about the same number again or perhaps a few more civilians, with over 200 children. None of these figures can or have been verified.
And is difficult to do so when civilians (many of whom have done military service. Some in fact in the Russian military) are now retaking up arms to defend their country against the in aggressor in whose military they served.
As for Ukranien heavy armour, it was never verified what they had in the first place or what they have lost. We also have no idea how much defensive hardware which has come in from places like the UK since the threat of war began, and what that hardware consists of.
We do know that some of this consists of hand held anti tank weaponry. We also know that the Ukraniens are trying to get their hands on as much body protection equipment as they can for the civilians who are refusing to leave some of the cities. This has been verified.
The big unknown is how much of a wasteland Putin is willing to turn Ukraine into and how many civilians he is prepared to starve to death before he has done. If there is a logic in his actions no one seems to know what it is.
Meanwhile, the people of the world appear to be reclaiming the internet and social media, as was originally intended.
Poland providing fighters to Ukraine let alone letting them operate from Poland would mean WW3. So Poland is not gonna do that, thankfully. The US should be careful what they suggest. They are 5000 NM out of the firing line, but Poland is right next door.
Even if it happened, I don’t think Poland sending MIG-29s to Ukraine would achieve much.
Wikipedia says Poland only has 23 of them, and like most Russian hardware it is almost certain that much of it is inoperative most of the time.
In any case the MIG-29 is 1970s technology and the Russians aren’t going to have much trouble shooting them down. It seems highly doubtful that Ukraine has enough air force support structure left (airfields, tankers, AWACS, etc) to mount any kind of ongoing Combat Air Patrol.
Any extra combat aircraft they could acquire would be likely thrown into one-off high-risk missions, and while it’s always useful to have some more resources it’s unlikely to be a game changer.
I see nothing to support @LeSving’s suggestion that the Ukrainian armed forces no longer exist in any organised fashion. They aren’t going to publish updates on TV every days telling you where various infantry divisions are etc, because that would be rather useful to the Russians.
epidemiology experts to military experts
I think people have had enough of experts 
Peter wrote:
Direct speech: "The attack on the Vinnytsia airfield was carried out from the south. According to updated information – from the Black Sea, strategic bombers Tu-95 MS or Tu-160.
This is typically a proof that they may have lost air superiority; they don’t want to sent armed copter or even migs in the air of Ukraine, because they all operate at low altitude and are targsts of Choice for Stingers that are sent by tons by european countries. But still, russian are slowly recovering…
From the latest video posted by Peter, it seems that Ukraine army, by far less important and under equipped vs the russian one, have done it very cleverly by:
-cut the bridge and railway line to slow the heavy armored vehicles
-target fuel supplies and trucks at the north border to limit intrusion of russian forces by the north front.
Of course, they know the russian army very well… It was theirs 20 years ago after all.
The hardest point these days seems to be the east front around Karkhiv, Ukrainian forces are still holding it, which is very courageous and almost surprising, because Actually Putin is unleashing all that he has on it (except nuclear, but are we sure?) as he doesn’t care, and is very angry that this russian-speaking city turned against him.
Yesterday I have seen a very organized team work in cities, where mostly women and older ones are crafting jackets, molotov, soldering hedgehogs, and filling sand bags blockades to prepare defenses in all cities. All of them are like us: commercial, nurse, programmer, cashier, managers (FPL planners…).. I have to say this is admirable to see how fast and how well they stand and fight, although all of them are very emotionnal. I wish I could say the same from people of my own country (including me) because we are all seating in a confort and well established society since years.
A very nice diplomat I have seen yesterday (he’s a clever one, a bit too technical – Dominique de Villepin) said that we should be more tough with Putin. As he actually violate all the treaty he signed himself, UN should get the territorry he took by force some years ago. He has no honor and word, and only know military and violence, then we should at least show we can do it, otherwise he will still be the master of the game.
Two stories:
1)
After our velvet revolution the Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty moved to Praha, Czech Republic. In 2001 the secret services identified preparation of an attack on RFE/RL and Czech Army was ordered to protect the building. So, four armored vehicles hit the road, some 300km to go. Two of them broke down on their way and only two reached the destination. Maintenance issues?
Just to add a funny bit – while the two were protecting the RFE building, some artists dismounted one of the lights from the vehicle and displayed it at an art exhibition.
2)
In 2007 Mr. Serdyukov was appointed as Defense Minister of Russia, with the goals of removing corruption and increasing efficiency of the army. Unfortunately for him, he was successful. He made sure the due tasks such as maintenance are done properly and not only be charged for, and took many other actions to meet his goals. By such disruption of the established cash pipes he created many powerful enemies and therefore in 2012 he was sacked. He was replaced by Mr. Shoigu, a loyal member of the structures, who reverted most of Mr. Serdyukov’s reforms. Coud this result in maintenance issues?
Before we start feeling superior over the technical status of East Europen armies, perhaps worth to add that maintenance challenges are not faced only by the East. In 2017 Germany had only 26 Tornados airworthy out of the 93 planes total.
Regarding Logistics … https://youtu.be/b4wRdoWpw0w
@greg_mp it was not that long ago that we were invaded. My parents remembered as children, hiding from the bombs. My grand parents did what they could.
In this area a group of young men of the resistance which taken to the local forest, never to be seen again. There now just remains a plaque.
Did it do the leaders of Germany any good? No.
Did it do us any good? No. There is still deep resentment against people who supported the Vichy government by the Gaullists.
Germany has been the big winner of the peace. We are still trying to get there, so perhaps you should have some empathy for those who are taking a measure approach to the war in Ukraine.
