The only viable negotiating position, in any scenario in business (or war – it is the same thing really in terms of strategy and tactics) is to start from a position of strength and determination (i.e. in this particular case, just leaving the EU with no deal). Then you can negotiate over areas of common interest.
The problem here is that the Govt did not have the majority to do that, so Mr Barnier could just spend 2 years taking the p1ss out of the UK. This was entirely foreseeable. You don’t need 2 years to agree areas of common interest. 2 weeks would do.
Peter didn’t the Tories start from a position of power and didn’t Liam Fox say a deal could be wrapped up in a couple of weeks. (That was of course before an unnecessary election to make the May position stronger).That didn’t work out very well did it?
It seems to be the Brexiteers chant that the EU are being unfair and trying to punish the UK for daring to want to leave. The EU’s position has been the same from the start, protecting the 4 freedoms enshrined in EU law. Even during the referendum campaign Brexiteers were saying that the EU would change its position if UK left, they need our money, they need us more than we need them etc.
Now, because the EU wont give way to threats the Brexiteers say they are inflexible etc.
I agree with you entirely that with the current situation in British politics it would perhaps be better to leave with no deal and then negotiate rejoining the bits that the UK wants to be part of. But I think making those deals in a couple of weeks is wishful thinking and what do you do between the end of March 2019 and those deals being made? Also does the UK government know what if anything it would wish to rejoin in the future and what it is prepared/able to offer in return?
Peter wrote:
The only viable negotiating position, in any scenario in business (or war – it is the same thing really in terms of strategy and tactics) is to start from a position of strength and determination
I agree. However that assumes you know what you want at the outset – which I suspect we did not.
Indeed; and there is a lot of detail one can debate. However, I have faith in the overall scenario which is that international trade is the world’s second oldest profession 
and WTO tariffs are mostly below the currency exchange rate noise.
Any negotiation with a time frame is going to run into trouble, because the participants just screw around (in politics, political posturing, etc) until shortly before the deadline, and this does a lot of damage to everybody. Divorce, anyone? 
Ibra wrote:
At the core Brexit is not that much a UK/EU problem but it comes mainly from internal conservative politics that went out of control
‘Europe’ has been the bête noire of the Conservative party since probably the time of Margaret Thatcher, which became divisive and then an election issue, which then spread to the electorate.
Fuji_Abound wrote:
which she has said she will not
How do you know when a politician is lying? When her lips are moving.
Capitaine wrote:
‘Europe’ has been the bête noire of the Conservative party since probably the time of Margaret Thatcher
I remember the history of 1975 rather differently. It was the Labour party that was split down the middle, with the left (Foot, Benn) being wholly opposed, and the right supporting the Tories in being for.
It was Maastricht that really did it for the right of the Tory party, as they saw the loss of national self-determination. The split between nationalism and international co-operation is always going to be a tough one, but history seems to tell us that nationalism rarely turns out well.
I feel the WTO position as being the best option at the moment.
Britain being the second largest contributor to the eu budget will have a significant impact.
Either the EU fills the defecit from other net contributing members or they reduce their own budget accordingly. It will be interesting to see what occurs.
I must say that the EU did not cover itself in glory yesterday. It was offered a sensible compromise, possibly the only available compromise, which it has rejected.
As a firm Remainer, I was always aware of shortcomings in the EU, but still thought that it was better to remain in a flawed organisation than to leave.
However, the EU is now demonstrating again how difficult it is to keep 27 nations, each with their own national interests and nationalist parties, together in making a decision.
Also, since our referendum, the EU has shown appalling lack of leadership and cohesion in two big issues: refugees and the rise of the nationalist hard right, especially in Hungary, Austria and Poland, but in many other places besides.
I am beginning to wonder whether the EU is set to fall apart anyway, regardless of Brexit, though partly caused by it, and whether the time has come to hold our noses and jump.
But I forecast that the short and medium term disruption will be appalling; probably close to wartime conditions in the UK. Yes, life will go on, but there will be food shortages and riots, a big rise in unemployment and homelessness and a big drop in living standards, particularly for the already poor.
And all this to save Cameron’s and Johnson’s pathetic careers.
I have a certain amount of respect for Rees-Mogg, because he believes, but for the ambitious careerists I have only contempt. They should be tried for treason.
Timothy wrote:
They should be tried for treason.
Yes, but unfortunately I do not see that coming to pass. Mop up the Corporate idiots whist we are at it. Oh, and the bankers.
I actually felt for Theresa May as I watched the charade play out on BBC last night, with only one poor soul clasping her hand as they left the garden photo shoot. Not sure who he was but well done that man, utter shame on the others as they shunned her and turned their slimy backs.
I discussed this with Ms Beechbaby after the newscast. If I were May this morning I would have called up all of the other UK party leaders, admitted that this cannot be achieved on her own, and formed a cross party group to sort this utter shambles out. If they refused I would walk, because she is frankly a dead women walking and why prolong this shambles. She looked alone last night, and that is not a comfortable place to be as the sharks from all sides close in. I also agree it will not be the end of the world (no deal), but it will get a tad uncomfortable for a while.
What would be the precise mechanism for food (or any other for that matter) shortages?
