Why would an independent Scotland not “have any chance” to join the EU? I’d imagine they would immediately be trying for regulatory alignment, and would be enthusiastic about joining. The Spanish (who have been seen as a sticking point, as they wouldn’t want to encourage their own separatist movements) have already said they wouldn’t block Scotland from joining the EU.
My guess is the EU would be glad to welcome the scots, just to make the Brits angry.
A little more “budget transfer” doesn’t scare them (it’s our money after all, not them).
The brits fought for centuries for the full control of the british isles and the surrounding waters, which worked pretty well.
The independance of scotland would be a major psychological blow.
Another great video about the US situation (from Joe Rogan):
What he describes is the mechanism we saw after 1789, after 1917, and so many times.
Malibuflyer wrote:
I have the impression that most of the people in Scotland that vote for independence do that in the misunderstanding/dream that an independent Scotland had any chance to become member of the EU. If politicians would tell them the truth that this is completely unrealistic and everyone understands this, I’d assume that even a new referendum would not find a majority.
There are certain issues that the Scottish independence campaign generally avoids talking about, but when it is forced to address them takes an unrealistic position on them in the hope that the core vote (those to whom the cry of “Freedom!!!!!” matters more than anything) will take their word for it and probably won’t understand the issues anyway. Lots of bluff and bluster is their strategy.
These issues include:
EU membership. The SNP suggests an independent Scotland would either be able to walk straight in or be fast-tracked. Notwithstanding that joining will happen over Spain’s dead body (precedent re Basque, Catalonia), no-one has been able to come up with any reason why it wouldn’t be a case of “join the queue” like any other prospective member. This issue is a whole lot more complex now that Scotland, as part of the UK, has actually left. Much is made of the fact that ‘Scotland voted to remain’, but the referendum was a UK-wide one and what Scotland voted for matters no more than what Oxford Airport voted for.
Economy. Once upon a time there was an idea that Scotland would become rich from oil like Norway. However the oil remaining in the North Sea around Scotland is relatively expensive to extract and falling oil prices have made the idea a non-starter, at least for now. Even that idea is based on the not-at-all certain premise that Scotland leaving the UK would take with it the rights to this oil just because it happens to be closer to it. We have seen with fishing rights in the UK-EU deal that just because geographically it seems to be yours, it doesn’t mean you’re getting it! Thus it is unclear what an independent Scotland might base its economy on, and one cannot just answer “the same as now” because Scotland is a net drain on the UK economy rather than a net contributor. Scotland has very high social security costs, a financial services sector in Edinburgh which would probably decamp to London as part of a brain-drain, and a lot of the employment there is UK taxpayer funded, either directly or indirectly.
Currency. The SNP has wavered between varying positions such as continuing to use GBP, joining the Euro, or having their own currency. The first option requires the consent of the UK (and why would we give it?), the second option is the only option if you want to join the EU but brings the twin problems of whether (a) indy voters want the Euro and (b) whether you can get your economy in decent enough shape to qualify, and with the third option Zimbabwe beckons.
Assets and liabilities. The SNP has some fanciful ideas that it will take with it a proportional share of UK assets, even the point of talking about how many regiments of the British Army would become theirs, how many warships and jet fighters they would take, etc. And of course they see no reason why they should take with them a proportion of the national debt. The reality is that a departing Scotland would have no leverage whatsoever, rUK would dictate the terms, and they would be distinctly unattractive.
The comparisons with Brexit are enlightening. The UK leaving the EU, however unwisely, at least (a) had some leverage in negotiations and (b) could be economically self-sufficient. Scotland unfortunately can claim neither of those in dealings with London. This was recognised by those Scots who voted to pass the 1707 Acts of Union, those acts being a political masterstroke on the part of Scotland.
Graham wrote:
Notwithstanding that joining will happen over Spain’s dead body (precedent re Basque, Catalonia)
Hasn’t Spain declared that they would not oppose a Scottish EU membership?
no-one has been able to come up with any reason why it wouldn’t be a case of “join the queue” like any other prospective member. This issue is a whole lot more complex now that Scotland, as part of the UK, has actually left.
This, I think, is the really important point.
Graham wrote:
The comparisons with Brexit are enlightening. The UK leaving the EU, however unwisely, at least (a) had some leverage in negotiations and (b) could be economically self-sufficient. Scotland unfortunately can claim neither of those in dealings with London. This was recognised by those Scots who voted to pass the 1707 Acts of Union, those acts being a political masterstroke on the part of Scotland.
I think you’re right, a much bigger ‘risk’ to the UK is the almost inevitable unification of Ireland which would automatically be part of the EU.
Airborne_Again wrote:
Hasn’t Spain declared that they would not oppose a Scottish EU membership?
What Spain says now, while the issue is not actually on the table and the incentive to irritate London (with issues such as Brexit and Gibraltar in the background) is high, is quite possibly different from what Spain will say when it is faced with the prospect of actually creating that precedent.
LFHNflightstudent wrote:
I think you’re right, a much bigger ‘risk’ to the UK is the almost inevitable unification of Ireland which would automatically be part of the EU.
Indeed. It will happen one day (I hope soon) but there is no real risk to the UK (rGB) in this, economic or political. NI, like Scotland, is a considerable cost to whoever has to pay for it. I’d imagine that London will eventually hand it over to Dublin with a considerable dowry.
The only Brits that want to retain NI are the jingoistic sort. Unfortunately rather too many of them, and the unionists in NI are also a problem.
I’m reminded of this cartoon:-
Of course the real situation is somewhat more complicated, but it’s funny none the less 
alioth wrote:
Why would an independent Scotland not “have any chance” to join the EU
Fully agree to what Graham has said: Acceptance of new members can only be done by unanimous vote of the existing member states.
Some of the Eastern European countries will leverage this to bargain about subsidies, etc. but this can be handled. The problem is Spain!
Not only emotionally but in terms of hard economics it would be suicide for any Spanish government to allow a precedent for parts of countries becoming independent members of the EU. If that happens, Catalonia will declare independence in a second and the remaining part of Spain will then be economically unviable.
Will not happen – even if some Spanish politicians might have said something while negotiating for Gibraltar, knowing that they will for sure no longer be in office when this question could actually be on the table…
Graham wrote:
no-one has been able to come up with any reason why it wouldn’t be a case of “join the queue” like any other prospective member.
Don’t agree here: There is no such thing as a “Queue” – prospective members are evaluated based on readiness. Most of that is defined by regulations, norms, social standards, etc. that need to be brought to EU requirements before joining. As Scotland has been member of the EU (as part of UK) for some times they are already pretty much aligned so that from a process point of view a membership could happen quickly – but won’t…
Malibuflyer wrote:
There is no such thing as a “Queue”
Ok not a queue as such, but do the process like anyone else…
