I know not everyone is so helpful but I usually avoid on line bookings, call and explain there is a possibility of cancelling and the reason for, and that I will know definitely on the morning of departure (or often the night before). I have usually found “they” are very understanding, expecially if they arent too busy anyway.
Sometimes there is a commercial alternative as well and while less convenient (a lot less) to be fair it is often a lot less expensive – especially when you have two Lycos to feed and there is only two of you – not so bad if there is six!
I usually find on shorter journeys timing is everything (it usually settles down at some point in the day, or is a lot better first thing), and on longer journeys there is a way around if you are prepared for the extra miles.
I also think the earlier suggestion of it being an excuse to stop somewhere on the way is a good idea.
In convective situations like this, you can’t do right. If you cancel, it will most probably have been possible, if you don’t you’ll end up with a enroute diversion. BUT, with convective situations if you have time, you can sort them out. I would have thought Bosco’s proposal pretty spot on but maybe even with a variant: Plan non-stop but with an enroute alternate before you reach the convective area so you can land there without hassle. Then wait until a gap opens and get going again. In this situation we had over the last few days, Augsburg, Altenrhein or Friedrichshafen would have been airports where you can drop in without PPR (AOE) and which would be in an ideal position to continue or even spend the night if need be.
I’ve had my experience with cancellations, almost always flights across the Alps. Which is why I (VFR-max lvl 170) don’t plan them at all anymore and will do them short notice if the Alps are flyable (which VFR they are approximately 30% of the time). The one cancellation which really struck home was my 2nd Bulgaria flight which ended after 3 hours with a return to base after cloud tops were up to FL220 instead of the forecast FL120. No way to cross the alps on the only day in a full week where there had been a realistic chance. 3 months of planning out of the window. The post mortem however showed that I should have canceled at least a week before as the models then had been right…. and there was some relief when I saw how the weather was on the way back, there had been a chance that the airplane would have spent a couple of weeks off base had we been able to go the day we returned. The alps were closed solid for over 3 weeks for VFR during this time.
Pre – IR. I was renting a PA32 with an unusable stormscope. We were planning to fly from White Waltham to Caen for my grandmother’s 90th birthday bash. There were PROB30 embedded TS on the south coast of England, at a time when I didn’t know where to find sat pictures online, so I had no idea if they were really there. Huge pressure to go. Went to the airfield, took the covers off, refuelled, loaded the luggage. Looked at my wife and 3 kids in the back and thought to myself, “you’re an idiot”. Put the covers back on and drove for 7 hours. My wife (also a pilot) told me to get the IR and a more capable plane or give up flying… I did the former.
So annoying to cancel but ultimately led to a good outcome.
I think I’ve canceled no more than two flights in the last four years, which is also a result of good luck. Both times the limiting factor was the lack of an instrument approach at my home airport and the resulting ceiling limitations (which used to be personal limits but which are now NOTAMed!).
Having said that, especially with onboard weather, if the weather en route is doubtful I tend to launch anyway and prepare to divert. I’ve had to do it quite a few times, something I never did when the lack of an IR forced the cancelation of any marginal flight.
Peter, would you decide differently if you had onboard wx radar? Or is it the max altitude (even using oxygen) that’s no sufficient?
No.
I have the ADL150 but the preflight wx pictures from radar, sferics and IR told a pretty good story i.e. you might get through the gap but if you don’t, and decide to turn back, you could get more TS behind you, and get surrounded by TS. I recall a TB20 pilot who that happened to, who wrote up that story in a long-gone private forum. That pilot is on EuroGA but almost never posts.
The TB20 should take a lightning strike but (a) it could damage a lot of avionics and (b) there is a mandatory shock load inspection due to possible engine damage (lightning often enters or exits via a prop tip, so the current passes through the crankshaft bearings etc).
The TB20 cannot outclimb this stuff. A TBM just might reach the tops but would still be taking a lot of avoiding action. It might not have any IMC in between but the cells were closely spaced.
On the day you cancelled that flight, there were sigmets for convection up to FL380… I don’t think a TBM would have done the trick.
I was flying from Nimes to Madrid and just had to wait for the stuff to pass. That’s with onboard radar, deice (also a factor in those conditions) and FL250 ceiling. From where I sit, if you didn’t want to do an enroute diversion, there was only one call and that’s the one you made (in my humble opinion).
Thanks for chipping in denopa. Funnily enough after posting the question to Peter I did some searching online thinking which plane would be sufficient (onboard wx radar, deicing, high altitude capable/pressurized) for this mission/weather and still be financially reasonable (piston, single engine). Needless to say the PA46 350 was the only search result ;).
To fly through a field of fairly densely packed CBs you need a TBM with RVSM 
Obviously it depends on how “densely packed”… There will always be gaps; that is inherent in the CB mechanism. A bit like your teeth will always have gaps
But I know of radar equipped pressurised pilots with a ~FL270 ceiling who found a wall of CBs and had to turn around. It gets better: once I was sitting at Biarritz LFBZ, waiting for rain to stop, when several bizjets departed for somewhere in Spain (possibly Malaga) and all returned when they found the CBs over the mountains too closely packed.
Big jets are built to take a lighting strike without damage (they can get many a year, I am told by one pilot) so they can adopt a more aggressive approach.
Snoopy : to be 100% fair, the P210 fits the bill as well. Though the PA46 is, I believe, a much better airplane ;-) It has its downsides but quite extraordinary capabilities.
Once in the mid to high FL200s convection is usually avoidable visually. CBs are not usually so densely packed you can’t manouver around them.
Sometimes at 250 in the Mirage I was in IMC. Less commonly at 280 in the Meridian. Very rarely at 410 in the Mustang and almost never at 450 now.
Mostly CBs could be steered around even at 250. Deicing and radar is fine but altitude is your friend in those conditions.
