At the moment 288 people in California have been diagnosed out of a population of 40 million, or one in every 139,000 people. I think you’d have a very difficult time finding one of them if you wanted to contract the virus intentionally.
This is very true, and will be true until things get much much worse.
Currently there are 10 known cases in East Sussex (of which 9 are in Brighton City which is full of packed cafes etc) out of a population of 500k.
The biggest risk, by 2 or 3 orders of magnitude, are door handles, supermarket trolley handles, etc.
Peter wrote:
This is very true, and will be true until things get much much worse.
Actually this is a question of 1 or 2 weeks,which is not far from the incubation time of the covid…
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
Remember that if 288 have been diagnosed, you are actually between 3800 and 5700 active cases, and in a week, there will be 25% increase by day until lock out is effective.
Peter wrote:
The biggest risk, by 2 or 3 orders of magnitude, are door handles, supermarket trolley handles, etc.
In our area the greatest risk at the supermarket is the traffic getting in and of the parking lot. My wife just returned from Aldi on a mission to buy cat food. We are well stocked with toilet paper due to a sale a month ago. 
The whole thing is comical, there is probably one person (or none) within fifty miles of here with undiagnosed Coronavirus.
It does occur to me however that in any circumstance I can go flying without any human contact whatsoever, from leaving the house for my hangar, flying my plane and returning to the house. As a friend of mine once said about flying his single seat plane, the best thing about it is the social experience…
greg_mp wrote:
Remember that if 288 have been diagnosed, you are actually between 3800 and 5700 active cases, and in a week, there will be 25% increase by day until lock out is effective.
Excellent point. If you take the number of “diagnosed” cases in any given area, the “true” number of cases is an order of magnitude higher due to the incubation time. This is especially true in the US, which botched the testing efforts initially.
Silvaire wrote:
In our area the greatest risk at the supermarket is the traffic getting in and of the parking lot.
In normal times I would agree with you, but not nowadays…
A state of emergency gives let’s people really clamp down. Whether all of them will be lifted after I think will be interesting to see.
MedEwok wrote:
Excellent point. If you take the number of “diagnosed” cases in any given area, the “true” number of cases is an order of magnitude higher due to the incubation time. This is especially true in the US, which botched the testing efforts initially.
I think this method will be true until lock-out is effetive in any country. There is a variance in how the number of confirmed case is close to the reality, which is more or less relative to the ratio of tested people. In France this method may be far from reality because we are only testing confirmed cases…
Off_Field wrote:
Whether all of them will be lifted after I think will be interesting to see.
They won’t, you’re being ratcheted.
Silvaire wrote:
They won’t, you’re being ratcheted.
That’s what bothers me
Whoever had those tractors parked behind the planes is worried about the owners of the planes „secretly“ flying them out. Somebody who can pull off flying those planes out of there „secretly“ can probably also pull off to get rid of those tractors. It’s a bit comical :)
