DWD Bodenwettervorhersage; which is one of the most important tools in my box.
Monday:
Tuesday:
Wednesday:
Departed 15 min before planned EOBT, landed 35 min before planned time due to 10 to 25 kts of tailwind. GRAMET again 100% accurate, 5 min of IMC on climb, FL120 clear with occasional haze, descend clear with some rain near Zagreb but actual VMC.
The German chart for Monday I probably agree with except it gives no idea of the vertical profile. The “SCT” can refer to just the “SCT” as in a TAF i.e. only in the 5000ft above the airport elevation (or the MSA, etc).
The current IR image and the way it is moving suggests there is a fair chance of it bring OK tomorrow at LKPR and onwards at 0800Z
and the LKPR and EGKK tafs tend to agree
LKPR 031100Z 0312/0418 15010KT 9999 BKN030 TEMPO 0317/0401 3000 RA BKN017 PROB30 TEMPO 0320/0401 1800 RA BR BKN008 BECMG 0403/0406 9999 SCT040 TEMPO 0410/0417 7000 SHRA BKN027
EGKK 031055Z 0312/0418 24014KT 9999 BKN008 BECMG 0312/0315 SCT020 PROB40 0320/0405 BKN012 BECMG 0415/0418 10008KT
I might re-file the route tomorrow to pass north of any high altitude stuff visible on the IR. I prefer to avoid high altitude IMC because I now know the air intake will happily ice up at say -15C; one needs to use the prop TKS to keep it soaked in TKS fluid but the fluid lasts only about 2hrs on max flow. One proposed solution (flying with the alternate air intake open) leaves you with no options if you get ice build up further inside the system.
The Gramet reckons it is OK but I have found it doesn’t show a lot of IMC
At The Hangar restaurant. Waitress outfits prob99 designed by Hugh Hefner 
Departed 15 min before planned EOBT, landed 35 min before planned time due to 10 to 25 kts of tailwind.
Am I the only one to get headwinds?
40kts as predicted, Gramet spot on in that we entered IMC at about Pribram and got out of it at approximately Lake Constance.
The IR image is mostly clear, except here at LKPR
but there is still 3hrs to go to departure so we will go to the plane and if it looks like one can get up without getting iced up, we will go, otherwise we will go back in and buy airline tickets.
Another option is to fly all the way back c. FL070 which is below the 0C level. This will help to reduce the headwind which is forecast at about 45kt!
A wholly-VFR flight should also be possible.
That doesn’t look to be difficult at all Peter. Just fly low until Germany. I’d certainly depart, even VFR if it was required.
FWIW … beautiful wx now in Prag (car report …) and definitely flyable to southern Germany
Just fly low until Germany. I’d certainly depart, even VFR if it was required.
I don’t do that because you can get caught low, below solid IMC and icing conditions and with no way up. One always has to have an “out”.
The conditions at LKPR were actually quite bad when we went and had rapidly become worse. Vis a few hundred m in some directions, low cloud (a few hundred ft), and IMC all the way to ~8000ft. My plan was, knowing the absence of big convective objects in the IMC (from the IR image and sferics), to climb to about +2C and if necessary sit there until we passed through the bad wx area. SFC temp at LKPR was +15C which indicated a 0C level about 7000ft which is well above the terrain (~4000ft max) but as we taxied out it quickly went up to +17C and was still +4C when we got on top, and we climbed to the filed/cleared level of FL100 where is was +2C and amazingly stayed at +2C all the way to the UK where the wx was pretty good
Wx data via the satphone
I will post a few more pics when I have combined them and straightened them out.
Good to see you made it safely back.
